Monday, February 25, 2008

princess yacht now in india


Top-end luxury yachts are sailing into tap the super rich in India. Forget Bentley’s and business jets—Princess Yacht is here. These exclusive hand- made boats are 50-ft beauties. For the uninitiated, the price list is of great interest: they start from $500,000 for a 35-foot boat and go up to $7 million for a P95, a boat which is almost 100 feet tip to tip.
Says the 32-year-old Delhi-based entrepreneur, Vishal Choudhry of Aquamarine, the company that will sell Princess Yachts in India, “There is no experience like being on the high seas in a yacht. The endless ocean, the well-appointed private space in the yacht is the ultimate in luxury. We see a definite market in India and plan to sell three to five boats each year. We have already four enquiries for the P42, the first boat that comes this November. The rest will follow over the next one year.”
The bigger market is not in just stand-alone purchases of these yachts but in fractional ownership. Analysts see these boats as a great entertainment and event opportunities, and the market for fractional ownership is believed to be worth over Rs15 crore annually.
Says Olympian sailor Ashim Mongia, who now runs a yacht consultancy in West Cast Marine in Mumbai, “Fractional ownership has a huge market potential in India. We need better handling and many more marinas to tap into this potential. Currently most boats anchor off Bombay or Goa. However places like Cochin and Pondicherry need to be developed.”
Princess is offering the entry-level P42 in the fractional ownership mode. For Rs 30 lakh, this will give you access to the boat for four weeks. You can sail from Mumbai to Phuket or drop anchor and have fun just off-shore. Options include full crew, food and beverages and maintenance for an extra charge.”
That India may be seriously lacking in infrastructure has not prevented other top yacht makers from entering here. Waiting to drop anchor are two other top brands — Sunseeker of Britain and Fereddi. Sunseeker sold a massive 105-foot boat reportedly for $15 million to an undisclosed buyer in Goa recently and Fereddi has done a deal for 55-footer with another underscored Indian buyer.

french connection india


Pondicherry is like a first day cover, launched with much fanfare and forgotten. It is one of those places we always want to go to but somehow give a miss in favour of destinations more famous. Doing so is a mistake, for not only is Pondicherry very beautiful — it is also unlike another place in India.
A former French enclave, it has a living legacy with a large French population in residence. Thankfully the enforced racist hue of the old is gone. In colonial days the place was divided between Ville Blanche an exclusive white town, and Ville Noir the dark quarter for the natives.
The first thing that strikes you is the unique blend of French and Tamil architecture. Pondicherry has, what INTACH describes as talking streets. In places such as the rue Romaine Rolland, French architecture in all its glory is on display. Arched windows, ornate roof work in metal and wood as well as imposing doors ensconced by ancient facades and ageless trees...
The Tamil quarter is a contrast in style, with its own set of buildings from the past, standing as if forgotten by time. One must visit the Vaysial Street for examples of interactive housing that is the trademark of a Tamil layout. A front veranda with a mini orchard and a more intimate veranda inside. The remarkable feature of Tamil buildings is the arched platforms that provide some resting place for passers by and vertical columns done with inlay and art. The wonder in Pondicherry is that both quarters are so distinct and yet a 15-minute walk from each other.
The fun actually starts even before you arrive in town. Stop by at almost any place en route and an alluring beach is at hand. And there are backwaters and coconut groves, occasional fish sellers, sailboats at rest, half-finished sand castles, cascading surfs and a lot more. Surely one of the best rides in India for scenic beauty.
The place to stay is a truly unique heritage hotel, the Duplex, named after the famous General who founded Pondicherry. It is a 200-year-old French colonial building with an incredible 16-foot high door in black shining rosewood. The door opens up into an imposing courtyard and there is a giant tree that provides a green screen over the entire place. There are arched delicate French windows and wooded doors and entire wood ceiling and colonnades of festooned brick that are from the original house where Duplex once lived. But the rooms are designed in an ultra-modern way with glass and steel. German minimalism meets French tradition in this wonderful heritage hotel.
Once you get the hang of the architectural joys you can make way for some natural ones. The first visit is the botanical garden set up by the French East India Company 181 years ago. This place has fallen on somewhat bad times owing to government neglect. Yet it is a green mini paradise for those who like a quiet walk. There is a toy train too which chimes along through the 7,500 sq mt garden but a walk is much more fun. It costs Rs 2 to board but needs 50 passengers to start. But you can pay Rs 100 and be the only passenger if you so wish. The fact that ensconced in this space are over 2,000 trees of 700 different species from all over the world give it a unique living diversity.
Next day we are off to famous Auroville, which is flanked by a beach. This centre of universal brotherhood, started way back in 1968, now has nearly 50,000 people from all over the world. We spend some time looking around the ashram, have a great lunch at a famous bakery and make our way back to the hotel.
The next day one gets up real early for a rare treat. At Auroville we bump into someone who makes catamarans, the famous Tamil fishing boats. The word catamaran apparently comes from the Tamil word kattu, which means to tie, and maram, which means tree wood. You had better be a great swimmer to go on one of these as waves can throw one overboard without warning. These twin-hulled wooden beauties are the best way to do the sea off the coast of Pondicherry. You bob up and down over the waves and the surf, you fish, you relax, you get thrown off. By the time you hit the shore, you are hungry beyond belief. Time to tuck into chef Kumar’s famous offerings at the best French restaurant in Pondicherry back at the hotel. The meal is wholesome imported French duck done crisp and in cranberry sauce with a 1994 light French red wine. Rest of the day you just walk the fabulous Pondicherry waterfront. The waterfront is a contrast, with an imposing statue of the Mahatma. And, a few metres down another one of the imperialist Duplex, and in the middle an architectural wonder — a singlememorial for all those Indians who died for the French empire in the world war. So even on a day off you have some busy evenings in Pondicherry.
Culinary Pondicherry
* The best bar: Without question le Club run by a French national of Indian origin! The expat crowd loves the place with its 600 different drinks in the beverage list inculcating some rare collectors French wine and a lot of old rare whiskey.
* The best stake: Satsang.The best stake house with 25 varities. Must sample medium prime tenderloin with blue cheese, a fillet that will leave you yearning for it once you are back in Delhi and at Rs 200, not too heavy on the pocket either
* Best sit-down dinner: Chef Kumar’s at Duplex; Best French food east of Paris. Try the duck and don’t miss the lobster.
Superb starters, colonial façade, and unlike a French restaurant, first-class service. Meal for two would be Rs 1500.
* For Chettinad food: Ramanpillai’s: Spicy as hell, lots of fresh fish and squid dishes. Meal for two would be Rs 500 approximately.

Saturday, February 23, 2008

globalisation is good for india as well as the MNC's




Consider the numbers. Walmart the world largest retailer sales $375 billion worth of stuff from its format retail stores world wide . This astounding figure is put in perspective when you consider that it is much bigger than the GDP's of Pakistan which in 2007 was a comparative meager $1.275 billion. If that is not enough, Citibank with all its troubles is a firm with a turn over of $2 trillion which is double the GDP of India.
There is no doubting the fact that globalization has spurred multinational firms to record size . The very structure of these firms with bases where the best return on investment are possible allow then to leverage global opportunities and grow. In itself this should be a good thing. For instance countries where there is a labor surplus with good infrastructure can attract MNC investment and help their own populations and economies to grow. The resultant purchasing power improvement can help create viable middle class as well. Indeed India is also as much a gainer from globalisation as these massive MNC's. With a large pool of labor and a vast market the mnc's invested as much as $16 billion in 2007 in India and are likely to invest another $25 billion in 2008
So what is the problem with the MNC's size? There are plenty of issues and surprising both the Indian left and the American right share concerns. the foremost significance is that it is perceived that the multinational of their sheer size and spread are beyond sovereign regulations of individual countries.
This is a misleading assessment. Countries where robust regulations exist or evolve can in fact use MNC's to their advantage. China is one such example which after making the MNC's invest in access of 300 billion dollars over the last fifteen years have now changed regulations and restricted MNC's investments as well as profit reparation. The Chinese have also come up with a government owned firm that will invest $200 billion some of it in these vary MNC's. This is the creativity of globalist which allows sensible countries to benefit from the MNC/s. The sovereign state of today is not yesterday's banana republic The fact is that dependence works both ways in globalisation. A win win situation should not be made into a scare story just because individual firms have leveraged the global opportunity to grow.

Thursday, February 21, 2008

india's tiger crisis



The story of the vanishing tigers of India is a crisis way beyond the environment. The royal Bengal tiger, now down to a mere 1400 in number has fallen prey to a crippling crisis of governance and astounding indifference towards this magnificent big cat.
The failure shows that in India governance in tiger conservation has nothing to do with ground realities. For years, project tiger flogged the myth of 4000 plus cats when it was clear from habitat loss and rare sightings that the number was fictional. The bureaucratic stonewalling resulted in a lost decade when action should have taken place to ensure tiger numbers do not reach what many scientists consider a critical low. It is shameful that the number of tigers today is lower than at the time of the launch of project tiger. At that time, there were an estimated 1800 tigers in India.

It took the Indian express to expose the lie in Sariska. The Prime Minister's subsequent intervention hasn't done much beyond ensuring that a scientifically sound count takes place.

A combination of four factors has decimated the tiger in India.

Indian forest were opened for "development" through an amendment to the Indian conservation act in late 1990's under the regime of Narsimha Rao. India is fast realizing that economic development cannot come without costs - and in this case it costs the pelt of the tiger. The loss of habitat and prey is killing more tigers than poaching.


The second reason is that at the level of the states the tiger simply is not a priority. In Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, for instance there are an estimated 1200 vacancies for forests guards and it is there not surprising that the state faces the specter of empty forests. Ranthmbore and Bandhavgrah have seen the most decline in numbers. What is more, the Indian forest act is toothless and even third time offenders get quick bail in poaching cases. The law needs to be tightened up as a priority.

The third complexity in the tiger puzzle is external. China and Tibet remain the world's largest consumers of tiger parts. It is such an ingrained part of the Chinese culture that in that country tiger farms - akin to a poultry complex - tigers are raised and butchered exist as a routine. Tiger is on the menu across China - especially in prosperous coastal towns. It is estimated that 70 percent of the worldwide trade in tiger parts ends up in China and the rest in other Chinese hands in south East Asia.

The fourth less studied problem for the tiger turned out to be so called scientists and conversations who work in its name. None of them stuck close to the knitting. Instead of scientific research and conservation they branched out into the hotel and resort business. Most of the famous name you here talking tiger have their own resorts - some in brazen violence of environmental laws. Few of these were even demolished for illegal construction in Ranthmbore, Panna and elsewhere. The costs of maintaining bureaucracies like the world wildlife fund with its fat salaries far outweighs any success they may have achieved. The tiger mafia is the least explored but most immediate threat to tiger survival.


So is it too late? Maybe not. But tough calls need to be taken. It is now clear that tigers and humans cannot coexist. There is need to ensure that India spends money in relocating people out of tiger zones where possible. All success like Corbett and Nagaerhole are in places with the minimum human interference. The law needs more teeth. An urgent diplomatic effort with China in world fora is critical for the short term survival of tigers. The corrupt tiger NGO's need to be brought to book with none spared. All this will need political will and economic resources to come together. It is now time to ensure that the second rung parks such as those in Karnataka get the best protection. Tiger are big cats and they reproduce fast - if a stable environment is put in place. This can make tiger revival a possibility. Lastly African style high value tourism model should be adopted to fund sustainable tiger conservation. Today too many tourists are having a free ride in tiger parks. In 1947 we had 50,000 tigers in India if you want the next generation of Indian to see the tiger's unforgettable gait in the jungle civil society will have to force the political class to act. And in India that is a tough call especially when time is as critically short as in the case of the tiger.

the ball is in play





Americans have cruel saying, “ If you are so smart how come you ain't rich?” The nay Sayers about the astronomical sums offered at the Indian players league auction need to keep that one in mind. Obviously the barons who bid know something that others do not.

By any estimation the bid was a grand success. Half a dozen players went for more than a million dollars a contract. Each ball that Harbhajan Singh bowls for the Mumbai team for example is worth 100,000 rupees. A no ball by him will put an opportunity cost of 50,000 on his personal account. An impressive 50 million dollars was splashed on the first among equals on the cricket pitch during the course of this momentous auction.
This may seem outlandish, but so did Kerry packer’s pajama cricket back in the 70’s. That created history. In a television driven, trillion-dollar economy that is today’s India with cricket as a prime pastime for at least 300 million citizens, the sums offered do not look odd. The IPL deal needs to be placed in the context of the larger picture where entertainment and sports sponsorship are estimated to be a $16 billion business. A large chunk of this in the sports domain comes from the game of cricket.
Like in cricket, so in life there will be winners and there will be losers. Some teams who have the firepower and the stadia that can manage to charge the 500 rupee a ticket that the league is banking on to make money will do well. So on paper Mohali and Calcutta are likely to do well. Others may have given way to irrational exuberance.
In the end the cake of the sport business is beings baked afresh. The IPL is a refreshing and even revolutionary idea from a board known to ignore basic necessities like training and equipping its sportsmen. In the end the hype will matter for little. It will be the paying fans loyalty to the twenty format and his city that may determine the glory of this incredible and audacious endeavor. It is important that the IPL works since it will add depth and dimensions to a beloved sport that sociologist Ashis Nandy famously described as an Indian game that the British discovered accidentally.

Monday, February 18, 2008

indian stock market anchors need transperancy




Media needs to be more transparent
Switch on any business channel on television and you have the same picture. An anchor sits in a plush studio with two “experts” gleefully telling the viewers which stock to buy, and which to dump. By the way of exposure you have a half a second clip which tell you that the said “expert “ holds stock in the very company he is pontificating about. This has clearly irritated the country’s stock exchange watchdog the securities and exchange board of India. Its out going chairman Mr. Damodaran made this much plain in a recent interview to the Indian Express. When a regulator held in wide esteem as a sensible overseer takes notice of the media it raises several questions.
In the United States, especially post Enron, there are specific provisions that channels have to follow including a detailed discourse of number of stocks and likely investment positions in the futures markets before they come on television and speak on a particular stock. None of this alas is in existence in the Indian media.
The lack of such disclosure has the potential to create a herd mentality in bull runs. It can also hurt the retail investor given the fact that some of the large business houses hold a significant percentage as ownerships in business channels. Thus if an industrialist has a major stake in a media house that owned a television channel and comes up with an IPO it can be a case of conflict of interest for him to manipulate a stock.
The real concern is that although SEBI has made two attempts to work out a self-regulating code of conduct for the media there has been no response from the media. This arrogance may cost the media some of its dearly loved freedom. When self-regulation is absent, inevitably governments find ways to impose their will.The media needs to heed this wake up call and line up a code of conduct that makes their manner more transparent. Such a move will help them, their viewers and the retail investors. Not so doing could cost the media its credibility and some of its freedom.

eliminate caps on corporate pay


The recommendation to eliminate the 11%-of-profit salary cap for company directors that is currently enforced is sensible and long overdue. The JJ Irani Committee is right in pointing out that corporate compensation is best left to market forces. In the age of global deals and mega takeovers, directors' salaries cannot be held hostage to arbitrarily dictated caps by the government. In competitive times, the corporate sector needs flexibility in determining exactly how the finances are to be used in engaging resources to optimise operations and achieve the desired results, and this includes human resources. What value who brings to the business, and what it is worth in rupees, dollars or beach holidays, is a matter of internal knowledge. It may be a matter of disclosure and discussion between a company and its shareholders, but the government certainly has no locus standi here at all. The only external regulator should be the market, and the government's job is to ensure that there is sufficient competition. So, if a company mis-allots its funds, it will find itself edged out of business by firms that do a better job of it.

As for the charge that directors are 'overpaid', there is little evidence to show that any systemic imbalance has arisen out of high salaries in corporate India. In fact, there is reason to believe that companies are paying people only as much as needed to access their skills. And these vary vastly, as evident in dozens of other fields of human endeavour that get more media exposure. It is just that this variation is something that external observers are not necessarily equipped to appreciate in the corporate arena. Higher competition tends to activate the variation, resulting in divergences in pay. In such a scenario, any arbitrary cap can create an artificial imbalance that will eventually curtail corporate India's competitive advantage. This is not to argue that there is no such thing as an 'outrageous salary'; as some instances from the US have recently shown, scandals do occur, but it is the self-corrective mechanism of the market—shareholders protesting, for example—that adequately takes care of them. Corporate governance exists for a reason, and that reason is to make sure that the company serves the interests of its shareholders. Salary caps do nothing of the sort.

deconstructing delhi metro



There is a new vigour to Delhi’s urban culture and it’s literally subaltern. It is fuelled by the speed, efficiency and a quite wondrous pride in the metro train line that is transforming the commuting culture of this ancient city.
The pride part is imperative. For too long the capital and its inhabitants have had much too blasé an attitude about the city they call home. This was captured memorably by Naipaul in India: An Area Of Darkness — the shocking apathy of spiting without looking, peeing at every available lamppost, and driving down the wrong side of the road without a care. Now, this has been replaced by a collective restraint and admirable dignity and a strange sense of ownership.
It is this sense of ownership, which the Metro has uniquely succeeded in inculcating in Delhi’s citizens. They see in it a symbol of an emerging India and they want to preserve its purity.
On the Metro it appears that there is citizen schizophrenia. On the road the old rage still dominates, with every kind of vehicle jostling for space in the most chaotic manner possible. In the Metro, the same citizen turns respectful of public convenience and decency.
What explains this dichotomy? I think it is because Delhi has never before seen the like of the Metro —efficient, cool and modern — and likes what it now sees.
The subway offers a forty-kilometer ride in 25 minutes flat, with none of the jerks associated with surface travel. What is more, thanks to the air-conditioning, the whole ride is easy — literally no sweat. And with the punctuality on which you can set your clock, the Metro is now the ultimate arbiter of time and space in a city that expands in all directions, way beyond the 80-kilometre ring road. Page 2 of 2 (Jump to page 1)A facility so perfect can be almost frightening for a citizenry used to terrible rickety buses and quarrelling drivers. It seems Delhi’s denizens believe they don’t deserve such superb service; that if they spoil it, the metro train will somehow disappear just as magically as it made its miraculous appearance.
It took me just one commute from the poor district of Seelampur in the east of Delhi to Pragati Maidan, to become a fully paid-up fan. That day 265,000 people reportedly travelled on the commuter line between 9 am and 9 pm. And yet the platforms were clean, there was no half-finished burger lying about, nor were there any paan stains. Also, unlike Mumbai’s suburban local train, the pushing and shoving were absent.
Here’s another unexplained miracle: the Delhiwallah, ever callous towards the fairer sex, has seemingly reformed on the Metro. Ever since it started there has not been one single reported incident of offensive behaviour against women on the Metro. While the close circuit cameras may have played their part, the body language is decidedly different, too.
My high point of the discovery of the Metro Republic came when I came across a rich dude with a gold chain on his broad chest and the keys to his Ford Ikon dangling casually on his belt, board the train at Chandni Chowk and calmly hanging around with co-passengers who had never owned a car but had now a billion-rupee publicly owned train to cart them around.
Mumbai locals are said to be great levellers because they crush them all in the morning Churchgate fast. But thats not funny. When Mumbai gets its own Metro — it will be another republic.

Sunday, February 17, 2008

T 90 india's tank troubles


India’s top tank T 90 is not battle-readyNinad D Sheth Thursday, July 20, 2006 22:34 ISTThe Russian-made T 90 is having trouble with its Indian-made ammunition, affecting the force’s preparedness.NEW DELHI: The premium tank of the Indian Army, the T 90, has serious troubles with its ammunition. The problems came to light last quarter but are yet to be sorted out. According to sources in the Army, while the matter has been taken up with the ordnance factory board, the indigenous ammunition already with the Army is lying unused.Instead, the Armored Corps has shown a preference for Russian ammunition. Among the possibilities is a move to import additional ammunition from Russia till the gaps in the current supply are sorted out. The T 90 uses a 125 mm smooth bore gun and the Indian made ammunition has problems in its packaging and the rate of fire that can be safely carried out. The unreliability of the Indian made shell is so serious that the army did not use it in critical numbers in the last two war games that were carried out in Punjab and Rajasthan. The T 90 is the front line tank of the Indian armored corps and India has 125 of these tanks. A further order for 400 tanks is pending with the Russians. In defense parlance, the tank force of the armored divisions is considered the core of the army’s offensive capability. The fact that there are problems with ammunition, points to a lapse in operational readiness of the Indian army. Sources say that this can compromise the new “cold start doctrine” of the Army. This envisages offensive operations at very short notice. Senior army sources say that for any cold start option, a reliable and strong chain of ammunition supplies is a prerequisite. The problem is all the more serious given the fact that as a weapon fighting system, the T 90 is comparable to the best in the world including the M1a1 Abrams tanks of the US. It is also the Main battle tank of the Russian army. However, without the right ammunition, the tank is of little use. Says General (Rtd) VP Malik, “The T 90 was introduced during my tenure. It is a first class weapons system. However, if there are flaws with the locally produced shells, it is a serious problem. When dealing with ammunition there has to be a very strict level of quality control and the problems once identified must be speedily sorted out.”Till such time that Indian factories come up with a shell that the army can trust or the bureaucracy gives speedy permission for further imports of Russian ammunition, the battle preparedness of the elite armored corps will continue to suffer.

T 90 india's tank troubles


India’s top tank T 90 is not battle-readyNinad D Sheth Thursday, July 20, 2006 22:34 ISTThe Russian-made T 90 is having trouble with its Indian-made ammunition, affecting the force’s preparedness.NEW DELHI: The premium tank of the Indian Army, the T 90, has serious troubles with its ammunition. The problems came to light last quarter but are yet to be sorted out. According to sources in the Army, while the matter has been taken up with the ordnance factory board, the indigenous ammunition already with the Army is lying unused.Instead, the Armored Corps has shown a preference for Russian ammunition. Among the possibilities is a move to import additional ammunition from Russia till the gaps in the current supply are sorted out. The T 90 uses a 125 mm smooth bore gun and the Indian made ammunition has problems in its packaging and the rate of fire that can be safely carried out. The unreliability of the Indian made shell is so serious that the army did not use it in critical numbers in the last two war games that were carried out in Punjab and Rajasthan. The T 90 is the front line tank of the Indian armored corps and India has 125 of these tanks. A further order for 400 tanks is pending with the Russians. In defense parlance, the tank force of the armored divisions is considered the core of the army’s offensive capability. The fact that there are problems with ammunition, points to a lapse in operational readiness of the Indian army. Sources say that this can compromise the new “cold start doctrine” of the Army. This envisages offensive operations at very short notice. Senior army sources say that for any cold start option, a reliable and strong chain of ammunition supplies is a prerequisite. The problem is all the more serious given the fact that as a weapon fighting system, the T 90 is comparable to the best in the world including the M1a1 Abrams tanks of the US. It is also the Main battle tank of the Russian army. However, without the right ammunition, the tank is of little use. Says General (Rtd) VP Malik, “The T 90 was introduced during my tenure. It is a first class weapons system. However, if there are flaws with the locally produced shells, it is a serious problem. When dealing with ammunition there has to be a very strict level of quality control and the problems once identified must be speedily sorted out.”Till such time that Indian factories come up with a shell that the army can trust or the bureaucracy gives speedy permission for further imports of Russian ammunition, the battle preparedness of the elite armored corps will continue to suffer.

anand milk town india


A city of milk and NRI honeyANAND
The tenth and concluding part in our series on the explosive economic growth of small town India.
India’s best-maintained six-lane expressway connects this city—famous for the billion-dollar Amul brand—with Ahmedabad. The average speed on the expressway is 110 km per hour, but the pace of change and action in Anand is even faster. The city boasts a rich and consuming middle-class. It’s Patel rap at play. A vast majority of the residents of this town are non-resident Patels from the motel trade in the US. The city is, by and large, clean and free of the grime associated with small town India.
Take the case of Raoji Patel, a man in his seventies, who, after being thrown out of Uganda, went to England where he owns 11 corner stores. Now retired in Anand, he has opened charitable temples and a hospital. It is this philanthropy combined with the cooperative model of Amul that ensures a broader base of prosperity. Says Mohitbhai Shah, a farmer in nearby Petlad suburb: “If you have six cows, you have an outlet that gives you a fair price. I think the farmer is happier in these parts than in the rest of India.”
The NRI income and well-off farmer are attracting the attention of corporate India. Bharti and Subhiksha are already here. Plans by Reliance, Aditya Birla group as well as Adani are also afoot. Comments Aditya Bhatt, a management consultant: “Anand has many advantages. The infrastructure is excellent, they have one of the best universities in India in the nearby Vallabh Vidya Nagar and they also have access to capital. All major banks such as HDFC and ICICI have a big presence here. When you combine local entrepreneurship with the money order NRI Economy, you have the making of a boom.”
This is reflected in the realty boom; the last three years have seen a tripling of property prices. At the Fame Adlabs theatre, ticket prices can go up to Rs 200 for the reclining seats. Several grand villas, though largely empty since NRIs come only for a couple of weeks a year, contribute to keeping land prices buoyant.
The famous Amul Dairy has a curious visitor from Seattle: Kirsten Grote of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. She is here to study the Amul model so that it can be leveraged for the foundation’s agricultural initiatives. And there is plenty to learn at Anand. Says BM Vyas, MD of Gujarat Cooperative Milk Marketing Federation, the apex body that Markets the Amul brand: “People come here all the time; they want to learn and hopefully replicate the success of the Anand model. It makes us happy that the city is seen as an inspiration across India for building capacity for broad-based enterprise.
“It has also gained from access to high technology in sectors such as the machinery and electronic industry; both have a sizeable presence with a big plant by Elecon that manufactures electronic equipment and at least three new entrants planned over the next two years.
Says Vivek Bhandari, director of Indian Rural Management Institute, Anand: “This is a traditionally wealthy place that is also logging on to the globalised context. You have a cosmopolitan culture thanks to the NRIs and because it is midway between Ahmedabad and Vadodara on the Mumbai grid, there is also prosperity through connectivity.” Add to that an 80% literacy rate and you have the makings of progressive workforce.
As Indians grow richer, Anand is sure to gain. As far as Anand is concerned, it would prefer to let them drink milk; that way the city keeps on growing and returning a large income to farmers all around. It is a bottom-of-the-pyramid story that started even before CK Prahalad was born.

boom town jalandhar


A city going hammer and tongs
Jalandhar, for long the poor cousin of Ludhiana, is fast coming into its own. The city is a case study for globalisation at work. Its growth story is unique in two respects: it’s exports-led and manufacture-driven; and it lies in the Doaba area of Punjab, home to a staggering 6 million non-resident Indians—a population equal to that of New Zealand’s.
A major trigger for growth is a property boom, which appears speculative. Says real estate consultant Arjit Kapooria, “On the Grand Trunk Road that flanks the city, the government-auctioned price for an acre of land three years ago was Rs 50 lakh. Today, in the smae area, it’s a staggering Rs 4 crore.
A large part of this growth is fuelled by the buying spree of NRIs.”
Land authorities estimate that NRIs have ploughed Rs 300 crore into buying property in the doaba in the last five years. Add to that the industrial growth, and the exuberance in the property market appears rational. Reliance and DLF are looking for large plots. Fourteen malls are under construction in the Jalandhar area and Radisson has set up a 5-star hotel in the heart of the city.
The driver for this growth is connectivity between Jalandhar and nearby towns. As one approaches Jalandhar, one can see work along the highways for miles around. The Ambala-Jalandhar road is being six-laned; so’s the one connecting the city with Ludhiana.
Exports are where Jalandhar really shines. With Indian exports growing 27% in 2006, these are good times for the city. It leads India in the exports of hand tools, Sports goods and leather. Says Surjit Jolly of the Sports Goods Manufacturing Association, “Sports goods are a true free-market story.
We get no sops from the governm-ent, yet we export Rs 600-crore worth of goods.
If, like Pakistan, we get non-duty imports for raw material, this industry can become a Rs 5,000-crore business within five years.”
Jalandhar is also a focal point for leather with estimated exports of Rs 300 crore last year. However, like elsewhere, globalisation and competition have also brought pain to the city. It is consolidation time, and smaller units are finding survival difficult. The high duty on machinery that the industry needs is also an impediment to growth.
Since Jalandhar is a manufacture-driven growth story, it has created enormous employment opportunities. With an estimated 3.5 lakh migrant workers from eastern UP, Bihar and Orissa, social tension is also growing. Locals can’t do without the labour and yet there is an undercurrent of resentment. I decide to visit a local liquor shop at the eastern edge of the city. It is a tough and dangerous place. Fights break out without warning over trivial issues.
I am sitting next to Hamid Rahim from Barabanki in UP. He and his friends work at a foreign Sports goods manufacturer’s outlet. The working conditions, they tell me over packs of country liquor, are as bad as before but the pay is better.
Semi-skilled labour gets about Rs 2,000 a month plus overtime. Even then there is shortage of labour. Says Rahim: “The real issue is lack of proper places to stay. If we had hygienic dormitories, we could save so much more money.” Is Jalandhar Inc listening?
On my last day in town, I meet the perfect example of the change that in engulfing this city. In Model Town, the downtown shopping arcade, I walk into a very busy shop swarming with youth. It’s a tattoo shop. I chat up Pammi Ahuja, 23, who is looking for a new kind of globalisation-induced opportunity. Having finished her airline course and English diction course, she has recently been hired by a foreign airline. She is morose though as she can’t have a tattoo (the airline forbids them). Globalisation, however, is leaving a mark on her life perhaps without her even realising it in this bustling city of Punjab notorious for female foeticide.
In Jalandhar, you realise that for India to sustain job growth, industrial production and manufacture hold the key. A recent Cap Gemini report hinted that India might yet become a manufacturing hub of the world to compete with China. For that to happen, a thousand Jalandhars will need to boom.

indian forests in terminal crisis



Ever since the mid 1990’s when the Narsimha rao government amended the conservation act and threw India’s forests open for commercial purposes including mining, the forest cover has be rapidly dwindling. On the face of it a one time loss due to the tsunami and gains in some states seem to point to an environment balance. There is still a sizable loss of 728 sq kilometers of forests and degradation of another 630 square kilometers throughout India. Thus when one looks at the latest state of the forest report the devil is found in the details.

A lot of the blame lies with corporate India whether it is setting up a bauxite mine over a tiger forest in orrissa or a power plant in Madhya Pradesh. So much so that a supreme court appointed committee had recently ordered canceling of 49 projects on forest land that had seemingly got relevant clearance.
The most serious loss of forest cover is in states such as Andeman and Nicobar and Assam along with Manipur and Madhya Pradesh. These very states were previously thought to be green cover bastions and are the ones which have shown most forest loss. One can safely add Arunachal Pradesh to that list. That sate is India as it used to be, with 83 per cent forest cover. However the recently announced package by the Prime Minister that calls for 10,000 crore invested in roads and railways across the state is bound to degrade forest cover here.

The reason why forests matter even in this age of globalization is three folds. For on thing Indian forest is a source for more than 250 million tribal and non tribal persons across the country. Forest products by value constitute more then $45 billion annually to India’s economy including timber and non timber products and proactive large scale employment. Lastly India is home to one of the world most diverse fauna and flora which if not nurtured could be lost for ever.

The real story of the forest loss of India is in its imbalance. Over the last twenty years the continuing erosion of forests in Central and north India has meant that the north east of India that has only 7 per cent of India landmass has in more than 25 % of her forest cover. This imbalance has created vast swaths of India without significant forest cover. The related f\degradation of river and outer resources is most immediate here.

A new law to empower tribal to have right to forest produce and land has divided the conservation community. Some believe that this may be death knell of the forests as viable cover as well as the tiger. Past record however suggests that such a doomsday scenario is misplaced. If anything the Gandhian idea of self reliance is more relevant today then ever before in the context of tribal rights over the forests. The tribal, once having ownership, is likely to use the forest as resource not as something to plunder on the sly. The empowered tribal and sensible regulations can together save the last of India’s forest cover. India and the world will be worse off if the forest s is not saved through political will directed at arresting the current slide.

Wednesday, February 13, 2008

interview with Steven roach Morgan Stanley


Steven Roach is chief economist and managing director of Morgan Stanley worldwide. He has more than three decades of experience in economic forecasting, economic policy and the global financial markets. His responsibilities include overseeing the entities gamut of financial and economic research by Morgan Stanley, including country indexes and other financial forecasting products. He spoke to Ninad D Sheth on the global economy, its growth and weak spots:

The global economy is on a roll. There is growth everywhere.

Yes. The US, the primary engine of the world economy, had a very robust year, China grew officially at 9 per cent but in my view it was more like a whopping 12 per cent, India notched double digit and even Japan of all places had 4 per cent. Only Europe seems to have forgotten how to grow but still managed 1.4 per cent. There is an upswing. The issue is whether this is sustainable. There are too many fundamental gaps leading me to question the ability for the world’s leading economies to sustain growth.

How serious is the US deficit as a source of global financial instability on a 1 to 10 scale?

The US deficit is a serious, but secondary, issue. I would rate it 6 on 10, however, the dismal US savings rate is the largest single cause of worry for the global economy. This is 9 on the 10-point scale. The shopping addiction of the US household, which fuels a large part of global growth, is unsustainable and needs to be urgently tackled. US savings rate is at a historic low.

Is the Bush administration concerned?

Unfortunately, the administration is moving in the opposite direction. The tax cuts and the fact that there has been no movement on the interest rates combine to make a dangerous blend. Indeed, there is no appetite currently in Washington for a correction. The overriding theme seems to be to continue with the tax cuts and not allow for a rise in the interest rates. The only way the US can grow is to get capital from abroad. Thus, with so much money coming from foreign lands, there comes a point when this financing becomes unsustainable.

BPO has emerged as a major US issue. What is the worst case scenario likely to be?

I sincerely think the worse is behind us in the BPO backlash. The jobless recovery happening in the US is the real cause of this backlash fanned by populism in an election year. I do not think we can blame the layoffs to outsourcing. However, there is no doubt that outsourcing will hurt net new job creation. To stem the flow of outsourcing through government-sponsored incentives would be a very expensive choice.

So is the Bush administration committed to free trade on this issue?

George Bush is committed only to one thing, re-election. If he sees his numbers slipping, there is no preventing an about-turn on the outsourcing issue. The administration is currently in combat mode for re-election. This is not an issue of ideological commitment to them at all. He changed his mind on steel and went protectionist. He can do it on the outsourcing issue as well.

So should India worry about a protectionist phase in the US?

Yes, it should. However, China has much more to worry on this. Already, there are two very significant Bills in Congress with bipartisan support that attack China. China is an obvious target because of the incredibly huge trade surplus that it has with the US. However, should push come to shove, India with the attendant issues of outsourcing could become a victim of politics scoring over economics? The real problems are domestic — in the low savings, the poor education. But it is human nature to blame someone else for one’s own problems and this is exactly what is happening in the US.

How is India placed to leverage the labour arbitrage?

India is well placed, perhaps, in the best position as far as the outsourcing opportunity is concerned. It has a brand equity as well as ground strength in knowledge workers. These are well- educated people with a high motivational level and well-connected globally in cutting edge IT sectors. With a conducive environment, India can use this to immense benefit.

You are an old time China watcher. As the Indian economy takes off, what are the lessons India need to learn from the Chinese miracle?

The Chinese have a very powerful growth model. It is based on a currency pegged to the dollar, complete emphasis on infrastructure for manufacturing and a very business-friendly environment for foreigners. India, even today, lags on the last two counts and need to sort it out for a sustained bull run.

Do you see China devaluing her currency?

No, I don’t. What they will do — and some of this has already begun — is to tighten the credit in the economy and cool it down a few percentage points. A lower growth rate of 9 per cent will help China and I think there are other creative solutions — not devaluation — that the Chinese will opt for.

And the dollar?

I think that it will slide more. The fundamentals point to a much lower value for the dollar.

Is Morgan Stanley bullish on India?
Yes, we are. We believe that India is a real opportunity.

banks and IPO's



The Reserve bank of India has fined seven banks for their role in the allotment of shares in the initial public offerings by firms. While the move is belated, it needs to be welcomed for taking note of investor concerns and norms already in the books of these banks. It is a good move for ensuring long term stability of the stock markets.
In a recent case, just a handful of individuals managed to open 14000 demeterialsed accounts and route them to corner a large share of the offering of a public issue from the Infrastructure development finance corporation. There was a lot of concern expressed at the fact that the regulator did not act in time to avoid such manipulation.
While the fine in itself is not a very big amount, ranging from Rs five to twenty lakhs, it does harm a banks reputation and sends a strong message. Banking norms will ensure that the banks that have been fined will have to mention the penalty in their annual report thus denting their credibility.
The action also brings into focus the myth of the small investor. It appears that a large part of the small investors are in fact punters shopping to get shares at a discount price just too offload it at the earliest opportunity for a profit. While there is nothing intrinsically wrong with such a move, it is important to underline that these are not hapless small individuals that they are often made out to be but speculators.
Speculators do not deserve special treatment.
The Indian markets need a vigilant regulator and restoring the confidence in the purchasing of shares in initial public offerings is a critical step if the dream run of the Sensex is to be sustained and taken forward. Unlike many foreign markets, the Indian bourses have been so far powered by domestic and foreign institutional investors. If the faith of the domestic investor is restored in the stock markets the Sensex can easily go to greater heights. The penalty will go a long way in curbing the speculative instincts of a section of the players in the bull market who try to coroner a large share of the initial public offerings. The fine on the banks is an important though symbolic step in ensuring that banking norms are followed and market speculation curbed.

human rights under threat world wide


Human rights under global pressure
Indira Gandhi once famously said that Corruption is a global phenomenon. Going by the latest report of human rights watch the internationally respected NGO, the same seems to hold true for Human rights abuses.
The 2006 edition of human rights watch is a scathing indictment of the United States of America. The damage done to freedom of speech, expression and international guarantees by the Bush administration’s policies come in for special mention.
The US is by no means the only - or indeed the biggest - violator of such freedoms in the world. However, as one of the world largest democracies and a beacon of freedom it is especially troubling for the country to be in the spotlight for some of the worse abuses of human rights that include torture of prisoners and denial of freedoms guaranteed under international law.
The approach to give a state a license to maim, torture and to kill - an increasingly rampant tendency in today’s world has come under special criticism by the report. The executive director of the report Kenneth Roth has said that”… fighting terrorism is central to the human rights cause. But using illegal tactics against alleged terrorists is both wrong and counterproductive.”
India too has come for criticism. In particular, on account of India’s gender discrimination. The report says that in India, women continue to face discrimination and violence. The report also point to the fact the India has a bad record in respecting human right in those areas where it is fighting insurgencies. The report further points out that “militant groups and Indian security forces continued attacks on civilians. Caste-based violence continued, especially in rural areas, and tribal groups that had converted to Christianity were targeted for attack by extremist Hindu organizations.”
To be fair, India has a robust and open society where numerous human rights groups routinely point out the problems. However when an internationally respected group comes up with such findings it should act as a wake up call for our civil society.
Democracies have more influence in global order and a far greater responsibility to maintain human rights standards. From the latest report it would appear that democracies as prone as dictatorships when it comes to the option of shooting first and asking questions later.
This is worrying for the future of democracy as a system and the values that dictate the civil societies of these free countries.

left without a solution



The left parties have made obstruction of governance and policy making into something of a fine art. From international relations to domestic financial policies, seems beyond their ambit when it comes to expressing reservations and stalling progress.
There is an uncanny method in this apparent madness. Raise the stakes, make a loud noise placket your constituency - and then end it all with a whimper. In politics when cynical maneuver replaces reasoned strategy the results are stalled progress and gains ephemeral.
On two recent issues, the stand of the left parties has been appalling. On Iran the left opposed the Indian government even before the government had taken a stand. That they mellowed down - not after an explanation from the Indian government - but when China and Russia went with the vote - puts a question mark on where left loyalties truly stand.
In the more recent case of the striking airport employees, who by no starch of imagination can be described as laboring proletariat - the left’s stand has been akin to that of a street fighter out to browbeat with his brawn. The bluster is all the more galling given the pathetic record in efficiency and honesty of the airport staff.
On national television Sitaram Yechury, the articulate politburo member and MP, compared the strike with the Bofors scandal. He went as far as to draw parallel between the falls of the Rajiv Gandhi government with that of an impending fall awaiting the Manmohan Singh government on the airport issue. This is a patent absurdity. The airport strike is not a political issue f any consequence. The privatization deal has a lot to offer the airport staff including profit sharing and a sizable financial stake.
The worrying thing is that the left rhetoric is bound to get shriller still. With elections ahead in left ruled states of West Bengal and Kerela policy and programs - indeed governance itself - could be held hostage for perceived political mileage.
On its part, the congress is toughing its stand. The airport bids went ahead in the face of strident protests by the left. At the Hyderabad plenary, Sonia Gandhi made it clear that Congress will fight the state elections as a full alternative even as they remain partners at the center.The left would do well to heed a recent survey which predicated a shrinkage of their political space should snap polls be called at the current time. However as things stand, they seem to be in a happy position classic to a status where power is without responsibility.

pesticides are a clear & present danger



Consumers have won a major victory in the Supreme Court decision that makes it mandatory for cola firms to reveals the details of their contents. In particular the court’s ruling will go a long way in making public the exact amounts of pesticides in an aerated beverage. Given the fact that a large majority of consumers are children, the publication of information on labels will ensure that at least they become more aware of what they are consuming.
The court up held an earlier order of the Rajasthan high court which the cola majors wanted quashed. However the court has a given breather to the cola majors in not forcing any contempt of court proceedings. The cola majors had not carried such details on their labels following the earlier high court order.
The triumph for consumers however is to be seen in a context. The fact is that in India today everything from vegetables by the any the road side vendor, to milk available at the friendly neighborhood dairy is laced with pesticides. Ground water pollution too is a big worry.
That it took a court decision for this to be implemented rather than a state law is in it worrying. In India ever since the green revolution, Growth in food productivity has been accompanied by an enormous dose of pesticides. In India implementation of food and drugs administrations rules is notoriously lax. It is this that needs to be tightened. For water alone India has two laws one from 1974 that addresses water pollution and another from 1990 that address environment protection. However their implementation has been tardy
Urgent attention is needed to address larger issues of pollution. The yamuna in Delhi is the starkest example. While there is water treatment plants on the river the water has become so polluted now that even these are not enough to treat the water body of affluent. According to a TERI, and environment consultancy, a whopping 6000 million have been spent on the Yamnua alone - with no results to show in terms of controlling pollution. If this is the case with a major river one can only estimate the state of smaller water bodies and ground water in other parts of India.India must learn from China, where rampant industrialization has caused poisoning of as much as 40 % of its water bodies. It is all very well to single out high profile companies and make them accountable for pesticides in their wares - but without ensuring higher environment standards and compliance to laws already in place, the Indian consumer is doomed to leave in poisoned envir

hurriyat needs to get real


The meeting called by the Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, to discuss Kashmir with the separatist elements looks to be a non starter. The Huriyat conference has decided that it will not participate in the meeting. This is a setback for those who think that the situation in Kashmir has changed enough for at least a dialogue to commence. Neither the hardliners, backed by Gillani, nor the moderates under the Mirwaiz, have come forward for the proposed talks.
The Prime Minister had offered a broad range within which talks could take place. These included discussion on some form of self governance for the state. Earlier they were allowed to travel to Pakistan to meet with that country’s leadership and make the atmosphere more amiable. By flatly refusing even to come forward for a dialogue the separatists are simply being obstinate.

In their zeal to exclude themselves from the political process, the Huriyat has come to be seen as a part of the problem rather than a solution to the Kashmir issue. For one thing, they are not the elected representatives. For another, they have not come out with any politically realistic proposal of their own for India to consider.
For the separatist not participating in talks this be bad strategy. They risk irrelevance and may be overplaying their hand. There is a change in the mood, as far as Kashmir is concerned. India has much more self assurance in dealing with the Kashmir issue - and this has given the leadership a greater room for maneuver in policy making. While terror attacks continue, some of them on prestige targets, the army has clearly an upper handover the terrorists in the valley. There is an elected government in place with a mandate to improve governance. This government is doing decent better job of managing the state. With tourists returning, the economic situation has not been better in the valley for over two decades.
In the aftermath of the earthquake India did a far better job of providing relief. By contrast, in occupied Kashmir the relief operations were tardy at best. There is some goodwill on the ground for the government today in the valley.
The separatists need to come up with a credible roadmap and demonstrated willingness to negotiate. There time may well be running out as peace returns and the economy picks up. Kashmiris have a stake in peace, to uphold peace and make it permanent, the least the Huriyat can do is to start talking.

pak china relations



If Kashmir did not exist, say old time Indian diplomats, Pakistan would have invented it. The ring of truth in this edge is evident every time a Pakistan leader travels to a far away land and speaks at a public forum.
General Musharraff in Beijing was no different. Speaking at a policy institute in that city, the General stressed that while confidence building measures on Kashmir were all very well but the real need was to find “solutions”. He went on to equated Kashmir with Palestine in his grand geo political reflections on the state of the world.
One of the reasons why Kashmir was weighing on the General’s mind is that the China visit is not turning out too well for the him. By the standards of a summit meeting between China and Pakistan - there was painful little to show. Musharraff had a very short meeting with his Chinese counterpart Hu Jintao lasting barely half an hour. Barring a handful of Memorandums of Understanding and a soft loan of $300 million for earthquake relief and the checklist is bereft of any big gains. The general reiterated that Pakistan could be a part of the energy corridor between Oil rich west Asia and China through the Gawder port and including the Karakoram highway. However there was no real deal on this offer from the Chinese side.
One reason could be the fact that bilateral trade between Pakistan and China is worth a partly $ 4.25 billion. This is not even chicken feed in the context of china’s overall trade of $1.1 trillion. India, with $13 billion and a trade surplus with China in 2004 -2005, has three times the quantum of trade. The missing economic link in this relationship could cost Pakistan dear in the years to come
The General was hoping for much more from this visit. After all, as chief patron of Pakistan’s nuclear Program, China has been of great help in the past. It is currently building a 300 MW nuclear reactor in Pakistan. There was an expectation in Islamabad of a package of nuclear energy concessions that could match what India is trying to negotiate with the United States. The day Musharraff arrived in Beijing, the Pakistan armed forces even tested a surface-to-surface missile to press home that point.
The apparent lack of success from this visit will add to the General’s problems. He is already beleaguered at home with sectarian issues and would have liked a foreign policy success to deflect attention from those. As things stand, China while continuing to be a solid alley, has offered little by the way of fresh concessions and initiatives.

boom town shillong


Shilong learns to rock
Shilong
Economic change is literally sweeping through this hill town of the Khasi’s. The humble broom we use in our everyday life contributes Rs. 300 crore to the economy of Shillong every year. The brooms made here are used across India and have seen a demand spiral in synch with the real estate upswing. The brooms cost Rs. 12 a kilo two years ago and now cost upward of 30 ruppes per kilo. Says Anand Aggrawala, who trades in this commodity at the up market police bazaar in downtown Shilong“ The broom is our best-kept secret. This is only the beginning - as rural India modernize hygiene consciousness come about this business grow manifold” It’s classic bottom of the pyramid.

From brooms to tourism and hydel power to software the city is witnessing growth. The city derives its name from the legend of a deity called shy long – one that grows naturally - and is at last living up to its name.

The free market works in fascinating ways here. The helicopter ride from Guahati costs 900 ruppes - take a taxi and the tab is 1100. With air connectivity has come the higher end tourist. Says Mrs. J R Phambo, who is developing a mountaineering and wellness resort in picturesque cherapunji,“ For years Shilong sounded exotic but out of reach now it is a two hour flight and a half hour chopper hop from Delhi. This has translated into a mini tourism boom. Suddenly we are accessible!” And it is likely to get closer. Plans are afoot to lengthen the runway at Shilong to land jet and turboprop aircraft. The first landings may happen this January. The result is a hotels boom - companies including the Taj group and DLF are reportedly exploring possibilities for opening new hotels.

The real growth though may come from unlocking the hydel power potential of the state. The state has seen interest from 40 power firms so far and at least six new hydel power projects are already in various stages of commission. Says Manas Chaudhery, editor of the Shilong times and an MLA “ If execution meets intention Hydel power could a be really serious money spinner for us.“

With an English speaking work force and property prices 40 per cent less than metros it is only a matter of time before information technology arbitrages the Shilong advantage. M Larsing, the NIIT franchise and hotelier says, “Info tech firms are looking to save cost and yet need a diligent workforce that is fluent in English. We have experienced that Shilong youth - once given the technical skills love to work within their homes even if wages are less. I believe that as far as cost arbitrage goes Shilong is the future IT hotspot.”

Yet another trigger for growth is from timber and non-timber forest products. Says Sahihun lang a young women entrepreneur “ Forest products are a strength of Shillong and with the well ness business and the retail revolution unfolding we see great opportunities in supplying top grade honey, turmeric and many other items.” To this end the government has set up an e commerce portal called the Meghalaya agricultural marketing portal and he bigger retails chains have already started procurement.
Finally there is the mineral wealth such as coal and limestone on offer. However the lack of clarity in policy and the difficulty of obtaining land ownership has deterred investors in this sector and much of the mining is illegal. There is also a disputer on mining uranium fro shilong give environment concerns.

One intangible reason for Shilong’s growth is its young population. It’s late in the nigh and the trendy disco Tango is full up trouble has broken out and fists exchanged. The waiter at the Disco informs that they need more bouncers - and from out of town since tribal and clan affiliation ensure that the local ones don’t do a good job of restraining fellow tribals. So economic growth and social change with it, in the city that annually celebrated Bob Dylan birthday, is blowing in the wind.
Growth triggers
Agro and forest products feeding retail chain
Forty proposals for power plants
Airport modernization likely to lead to tourism boom
English speaking workforce and low property and wage cost could prove a cost arbitrage for the information technology industry
Bottlenecks
Tribal society means a few powerful satraps garner most of the gains
The north east periphery yet to gain critical economic mass
Insurgency remains a issue especially in nearby agro hills

Tuesday, February 12, 2008

book publishing is big business in india


Publishing gains currency
On the face of it thin crowds at the world book fair underway in Delhi would point to a dampener in sales. Nothing could be far from the truth as far as the publishing industry in India is concerned. . The 3000 crore Indian publishing industry is thriving.

Three factors are driving the growth of publishing in India. The first is the retail revolution some of the stores such as landmark and Oxford have sprawling bookshops in access of 10,000 square feet. This was unheard of in India even three years ago. The footfall is at the malls and the bookshops and only the die-hard bookworm or the industry associate needs to make the trip to the book fair.

The second important driver is the rise in literacy in India. It is estimated that 200 million Indian have access to books in at least one language. A Ficci Pwc study showed that book readership grew at an average of 20 per cent per year since 2000.
The third driver is outsourcing. The global out sourcing market for book publishing is $2.5 billion. India accounts for a minuscule percentage bit the growth are robust. The labor arbitrage is obvious - it costs 50 % less to design typeset and print books in India when compared to the west. . However the industry is unable to fully leverage the biggest opportunity. For one thing the tariffs on paper are prohibitive making the industry uncompetitive for large-scale projects. Compared to India the free port of Singapore offset much higher labor costs by having a tariff structure that has made it a global publishing hub.
The book industry is also hampered by poor distribution as well as inventory management techniques. The time for books gathering dust on the shelf are coming to an end in the retail chain. If the publishing industry shapes up it can ship out a large volume of books though the off shoring model.
To fully employ the opportunity the publishing industry will need to introduce automation and bring to book lacuna such as inventory miss management and distribution hiccups. Not doing so could result in India loosing out to other countries in this segment.

soros looks @ indian entertainment sector



When billionaires come together industries shake. The decision by billionaire investor George Soros top put $100 million for a three percent staked in Anil Ambani’s Reliance Entertainment has indeed shaken up the sector .

Go to any film studio in Mumbai or a gaming café in Bangalore and you can see that consumer interest and easy availability through retail is allowing for a boom in India’s entertainment sector. The Indian leisure classes love their movies and their TV shows and there are more then 150 million of these willing to pay for content.
According to Price Waterhouse coopers, a consultancy, Indian entertainment industry has a turnover of $10 billion. It is estimated that the industry will be worth $13 billion by 2010.

The crucial difference this time is that this industry is moving away from fragmentation. Mr. Ambani’s enterprise for instance has under its roof more then 100 theaters across India and an equal number planned in the US. It also has film production firms that have signed upon big names in bollywood. Add to the menu gaming portals, postproduction faculties, an animation firm, TV programming companies, DVD distribution, FM channels with a pan Asian presence and music. What emerges is a media conglomerate in the making that can do the famed end-to-end operations Ambani style.
The larger industry too is growing exceptionally. New television channels are multiplying like rabbits similar growth is there in sectors such as movies and magazines. The Indian consumer is growing richer and more literate and there is also the back up of the foreign residing Indians hungry for content from back home. The annual growth of 18 % in this industry is looking to get bigger.
In all this growth however there are real issues distribution still remains a bottleneck though direct to home access will in time change that. The entertainment industry is heavily taxed making film tickets expensive even in small towns. Revenue models from entertainment avenues including FM radio and the Internet are in its infancy. However investors like Soros have taken a bet that a foot n the door now will ensure rich rewards as the market matures. This appears to be a good bet.

Friday, February 8, 2008

Singur: More Than A Nano Problem


"The word is about, there's something evolving, whatever may come, the world keeps revolving They say the next big thing is here, that the revolution's near, but to me it seems quite clear that it's all just a little bit of history repeating "
Propellerheads
Walking down Shakespeare Sarani the irony is unmistakable. On the one hand is the obvious bustle of the city of joy. A new excitement is palpable — there is more traffic on the road then ever, pubs are busy, at the addas the bard’s old question is the topic of discussion — its all about the stark ‘to be or not to be’. West Bengal, unlike the $1-trillion Economy that is India, is still grappling with this one.
In his simple office off Park Road former SBI and Peerless chairman DN Ghosh who is a veteran watcher of the West Bengal Economy has this to say: “Look it’s quite simple — industrialisation is needed but how do the communists commutate it to the cadre? How do you change track? These things are difficult. Everywhere in West Bengal it is a Herculean U-turn.”
Cut for a minute to the trade fair in Delhi where the Tata Nano car is being showcased. A total of 3,50,000 of these little beauties will roll out of the plant that the Tatas have controversially acquired in Singur. There are a bunch of English-speaking protestors crying for blood. The reason is an old one. An agrarian Economy is industrialising and pain is likely. According to government estimates, 70% of the state’s population depends on agriculture while the all- India average is 56%. They have never seen any other way of life. Agriculture is now, industrialisation is in the future. But will a successful industrial hub change all that? Says auto analyst Murad Ali Baig, “A thriving plant will likely change the mindset. It is not rocket science. When Escorts came with their plant in the late 80’s in Faridbabd there was opposition. Soon ancillaries came in and so did property development. The same thing happened with Maruti in Gurgaon. When Maruti came, Gurgaon was drab and underdeveloped. Maruti’s success was the forebearer of the MNC boom that followed. I am totally convinced that many of the fence sitters will come around with progress. West Bengal needs the plant to show what industrialisation can do.”
In Bengal however, the difference is Politics. The Left Front’s coalition partners as well as Mamata Banerjee have served notice and even issued ultimatums against this flagship project. It is a dangerous time and there is tension in the air. The site of the factory is picketed by police and private security. Says a labour contractor on the site, “We have 3,500 unskilled labourers working here and 80% of them are from Bengal itself. However, we are afraid that things could spiral out of control. Daily the agitators are instigating people and I fear that any thing can happen.” At the site itself, work is on at a furious pace and two large factory yards have already been constructed. No official is available for comments but clearly the locals are polarised. At a nearby school a teacher says on the condition of anonymity, “When students ask me if this plant is good I am at a loss to give an answer. Some of those who have lost land will suffer but the bigger impact will certainly be positive and allow Singur to move away from the land. We have to wait and watch, I tell my students.”
A lot hangs in the balance beyond the Tata car investment. If the Singur project produces results, a lot many others could follow suit. According to the finance ministry estimates, West Bengal received 12% of total investment proposal in India in 2007. The West Bengal government figures indicate that during January-June 2007, some 127 letters of intent were issued for setting up projects in the state involving an investment of Rs 49,128 crore, and also ensuring additional employment to 77,071 persons.
This is a significant development since in Bengal as much as 80% of industry is in the small-scale sector. Big ticket investment is likely to lead to greater employment mobilisation. Over the last 10 years only 2,00,000 people were added by industry in the state.
Says Sujit Poddar, a senior Peerless official, “Singur is a litmus test but even beyond Singur, after long years there is a revival of interest. However the state needs to articulate a clear policy to sustain this interest. On the ground level too there needs to be a change in the attitude of the cadre. Till then it will be a difficult investment destination. Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharya’s assertions are a welcome step. He needs to hold on to them and guide the state through the current period.”
Besides the industrial development proposals which are obviously set for the big league, the state’s strength in information technology cannot be ignored. A visit to the Sector-5 area of Salt Lake City is an eye-opener. For one thing all majors are already here. Says Amit Data Ray, a Salt Lake City-based IT workforce consultant, “Bengal has three advantages — firstly the English-educated workforce is large and young. Secondly, they work on 20% lower salaries and the cost of doing business is also less in the state and finally the instability and turnover of jobs you see elsewhere is also comparatively less here, there is the culture of sticking to a job.” Add to that the falling dollar and cost pressures and the sector is likely to see sustained infotech investments.
Though West Bengal is finely poised, like elsewhere in India it has to sort out critical issues of governance to make its promise into a reality.
Samiran Gupta, managing director of investment advisory Access India, sums it up: “Over the last decade, the services sector has grown in West Bengal to offer more opportunities to the youth. Re-industrialisation or bringing West Bengal back to the industrial mainstream in the country got a boost when the Tatas chose Singur as their home for the Nano. So a transformation has already begun. But questions remain as to the speed of the transformation process. The answer to this lies squarely in the hands of the people of the state. The people of West Bengal need to be the change for it to happen.” Like the teacher in Singur said, it’s wait and watch time. And time is running out.

river rafting hampred by dams in india


Rafting may fall overboard in rapids of dam projects
Business worth Rs 60 crore, at least 4,000 jobs and the priceless thrill of white-water rafting are at stake with the on-going construction of two dams on the river Alakananda and Ganga. Damming the Ganga upstream from Shivpuri, as well as diversions resulting from the massive dam at Tehri, has impacted the flow of water to the 24-km stretch. If the construction work continues and further tunnels and barrages are opened, some of the country's most popular rapids will be transformed into little more than tepid pools.
The first to fall overboard will be the 40-odd adventure firms that organise rafting expeditions. Says Ajeet Bajaj, president of the Adventure Sports Association of India: "The professional stretch on the Alakananda river has reduced considerably making rafting difficult. There is also a clear danger that the Shivpuri area could become unviable with two new dams coming up upstream and on tributaries. This is a pity because the Ganga is the best rafting river in India and now firmly on the world rafting map."
Explaining their predicament, one operator with two of the several camps that dot the Shivpuri shoreline says, "What dams do is reduce the flow of the river at times when reservoirs are filled and make it too deep at other points when water is released. In both cases, the two dams could make the stretch unviable and shorten-or even curtail-the rafting season."
However, the government does not seem to share the anxiety of the tourism industry. Says Indu Pandey, additional chief secretary, Uttarakhand, who also heads the state's tourism department: "Yes, dams are coming up on the rivers. These are run-of-the-river dams and are not going to affect the flow significantly. I think the industry can live with these dams and should not panic."

the ambassador turns fifty in style


It's been the iconic workhorse of the Indian roads for decades, the favourite of cabbies and government babus alike (it's the only Indian-made vehicle that can be upgraded to a bullet-proof version). And this year, the Ambassador car celebrates its golden jubilee with new models to reinforce its cult following, both in India and abroad.
Originally based on the 1948 Morris Oxford and, subsequently, the Land Master, the Ambassador was born in 1957 and lorded over India's modest car market for decades. In its heyday, the 1970s, the CK Birla-owned Hindustan Motors sold 15,000 of these clunky machines every month.
Of course, the advent of a whole new generation of vehicles has seen Ambassador sales dwindle to less than a tenth of that number, with central and state governments, as well as the tourism sector, still its most loyal customers. Says Hindustan Motors managing director Ravi Santhanam: "In its golden jubilee year, we plan to leverage both the great legacy and robust brand recall and will be introducing a new model every year."
The new models will be run on all four fuel types-LPG, CNG, petrol and diesel-will come with a sunroof and better styling.
The car's iconic stature was underlined by the Smithsonian museum, which held an exhibition of the Ambassador a few years ago. And if further proof were needed of the Ambassador's brand power, Richard Branson provided it in plenty when he rode atop one when he launched Virgin Airlines in India. Recently, a British firm even started a luxury taxi service in London with a fleet of exclusively Ambassador cars, charging £40 an hour.
Clearly, in its 50th year, the Ambassador is all set to spread its irresistible charms worldwide!
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make indian wine cheaper


The proposal by the agricultural minister Sharad Pawar to make wine more easily available has merit. While he has gone a step too far in calling the drink an enriched food - the argument gives Maharasthra an opportunity to get comfortable with the idea of drinking. In case of Shared pawar of course well he has a few of his own breweries and is likely to market them with Mallayya so there is a personal interest in making Indian wine available.There are compelling economic, cultural and health grounds for making wine far more easily accessible and at lesser cost. The case for the economic is obvious. India is one of the world’s largest producers of grapes. Much of this is wasted since the agro processing opportunities are lost given that the high taxation on wine makes their production uncompetitive. What is more, tariffs on foreign wine has come down over the last three years in keeping with GATT commitment making Indian wine even less comparative. Thus allowing greater access to wine at less will ensure that both the farmer and the wine yard owner gains. There is also endless scope in Wine tourism currently in its infancy which will no doubt get a boost with cheaper wine availability.The social case for cheaper wine is even stronger. The figures on wine consumption clearly state that India has in proactive left the Mahatma’s prohibition legacy far behind. Across strata social drinking is a reality. Wine drinking it can be argued is far less harmful then drinking sprites which have an alcohol content in the region of 50% and more. By making wine and indeed beer cheaper you crate an economic incentive that discourages the consummation of sprits.

mills update bombay


Mills to develop into a new city center @ parel

The Supreme Court verdict, allowing unfettered development of mill lands brings to a close a bitterly fought struggle between the green lobby and the builders combine. The agenda is now set for commercial and residential development of 600 acres of land spread over sixty textile mills in Parel and laubaug in central Mumbai. .The decision will make 4 million square feet of developed land available in Mumbai within two years.
Fears have been expressed that the new development may at best stabilize the price of commercial space in Mumbai - but may not bring it down by much. The DLF group has proposed the development of a one million square feet mega mall on the NCT land it bought while India bulls –the group that successfully bid for two mills - is to redevelop for commercial space.
This leaves very little new property for residential purposes. The average bidding price for mill lands at the auctions was Rs. 15,000 per square feet. The price will naturally be much higher once development and marketing costs are factored by the builders. The residential property on offer given is unlikely to be within the reach of the middle class. What it may do however, is to take the price pressure off the better properties in the suburbs - and bring a general ceiling to land prices rising in the near future.
This may be just what Mumbai needed given that it will slow a sudden downturn in price. The deal may deflate the price bubble and reduce the chances of a burst..
For the greens the court order is a blow. They had hoped for 400 acres of green space from the mill land redevelopment scheme. However, with the Supreme Court upholding the the amendment in 2001, that changed the availability of free land these hopes have been dashed. The city will end up getting only about 60 across of green land in the new deal. This is bad news or Mumbai, by contrast Lodi Gardens, just one of the open spaces in Delhi is over 100 acres in spread. The order means that Mumbai landscape in terms of gardens walks and such like - that are a given in all the other great cities of the world is unlikely to change much. The ration of open space per thousand person is .003 acres in Mumbai and that is likely to remain unchanged.While the greens may have lost this immediate battle, they will do well to fight on. The docklands – the size of 60 Nariman points are likely to come up for redevelopment at some stage in the future an active campaign could yet help develop a green lung for the city.

buying costly cell phones could atract the tax man




Buying that swanky new cell phone just got a little bit tricky. The income Tax department is watching you closely If you are going to spend as little as Rs. 25,000 they may come after you.
In a startling development last week, the department went across Mumbai’s retails stores and physical checked their ledgers. This was done to find out who the “big spenders” were and how they managed to get the money to splurge. The information was matched with the spender’s tax returns and notices were sent to over 400 people.
This is a retrogressive return to the days of the tax raid raj. The move has the potential of having a dampening effect on the economy. India’s economic growth is driven by a healthy 29 percent saving rate that drives domestic consumption, unlike China, which depends on consumption from aboard. This is a major advantage for the country and the latest move could hurt domestic consumption.
Even tax collection could suffer from this move. Taxes such as VAT contribute a far larger share in the government’s revenue collection when compared to Income tax.
. If an atmosphere of fear is created, it is sure to inhibit expenditure and in turn revenue from goods sold. As a result the income tax department may gain but the revenue from other departments such as excise and VAT will show a slowdown. The imbalance in revenue collection negates the logic of going after individuals. It will ultimately hurt the government more than consumer.
While it is no one argument that tax evasion goes unchecked, these intrusive methods are not the right manner to go about it. This constitutes a regime of fear where a consumer will have to think twice before making even innocuous purchases.
The move is likely to encourage the use of cash instead of credit cards. The consumer will easily by pass the tax effort by spending cash and this will only drive up the share of the parallel economy. The income tax department has other pressing problems. It has billions of rupees locked in t\legal disputes and the income tax return process too is in need of further simplification. By going after so called big spenders it is merely creating a problem rather than having a solution. The department will do well to rethink its position on this issue since consequences are a slowdown of the economy which India can ill afford.

IAF the widow makers






There could not have been a more tragic irony. In mid-1999 at the height of the Kargil conflict Flying Officer Pankaj Joshi and Flight Lieutenant Gaurav Chibber, were both in their early 20s. They had flown almost 30 sorties. But six months later both of them are dead - victims of peace-time air crashes that has seen the Indian Air Force's (IAF) flight record plummet to worrying depths.
Chibber died soon after the Kargil war on August 6, 1999, when his MiG-29 on a routine sortie over Himachal Pradesh suddenly developed problems and crashed into the pine forests. Joshi died on December 12 near Chandigarh, when his MiG-21 inexplicably burst into flames and went out of control. Joshi did try to save himself by ejecting from the cockpit but for some reason his parachute never opened and he dropped like a stone to his death.
Joshi and Chibber joined the long list of 28 IAF pilots who died in peace-time crashes in 1999 - the highest so far in the decade. The new year brought no respite. On January 10, a MiG-27 on a routine flight from the Jodhpur air base suddenly nosedived and smashed into the desert sands like a dart on a cardboard target.
The IAF's track record in the past decade is dismal by any standards: In the '90s, according to its own submissions in Parliament, it lost 80 pilots and 185 aircraft. Which makes it almost a squadron a year or a fourth of its entire fleet in the past decade alone. And the estimated loss: Rs 6,800 crore.
What is worrying is that much of the loss has happened in the past five years. "There is no doubt that after stabilising in the mid-'90s the crash rate - especially vis-a-vis the old MiG-21s - has gone up dramatically in 1999," says Air Vice-Marshal (retd) Kapil Kak of the Delhi-based Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA). A senior IAF pilot instructor says, "Whatever the establishment may maintain, such crashes send the morale of the force plummeting."
The IAF in its defence says one reason for the high crash rate is that compared to previous years the force is flying at least 20 per cent more sorties in peace time because of the tense security atmosphere. A senior operations officer maintains that Combat Air Patrol Sorties or caps has gone up in forward air bases such as Jodhpur, Ambala, Tezpur and Adampur. Officials also point out that the rate of crash has remained a steady three per 10,000 hours of flying for the past decade. The IAF considers this as a normal attrition rate. But senior officers acknowledge that the rising number of crashes are cause for concern.
Much of the problem relates to the ageing MiG-21 which accounts for 62 per cent of the crashes. The aircraft, which this year completes 39 years with the IAF and still remains its backbone, is beset with problems. All the 22 MiG-21 squadrons are at least two-decades old. A third of the fleet is believed to be grounded for the lack of confidence in their ability to keep airborne without a glitch. The IAF loses one MiG fighter every 2,500 flight hours, making it one of the most vulnerable machines in service with any force in the world.
Most MiG-21s crash because of engine burnouts immediately after take-off and stress fractures to the airframe. The burnouts are often a result of poor engine maintenance and inadequate supply of spare parts especially of the critical blades of the engine that provide the thrust. But as a senior officer commanding MiG-21 squadrons points out, "Since nearly 22 of the IAF's 35 squadrons comprise of the MiG-21s, it is bound to reflect in the accident rate as well. Do not forget that as many as 17 Jaguars have crashed and we have only four Jaguar squadrons in the air force."
Part of the blame for the high rate of crashes lies with the Ministry of Defence (MOD) and the IAF. They did not act fast enough to induct the planned MiG-21 upgrade which was expected to enter service after a comprehensive refit in 1999. The refit has now been delayed by at least three years -- first, because the government could not decide the contract between Israel and Russia; and secondly, owing to lethargy on the part of the Russians. Instead of upgrading the entire MiG-21 Bis fleet, all that has been achieved so far is flight-testing of two MiG-21s in Russia.
Ageing MiGs are only one aspect of the problem. "There are two reasons for the IAF's poor air safety record," says Air Commodore (retd) Jasjit Singh, director IDSA. "The first is a 16-year delay in procurement of the Advance Jet Trainer (AJT). The second is the consistently poor quality of spare parts that are needed to keep the fighter planes airworthy." With the AJT absent, Indian fighter pilots do not get sufficient training to equip them to move from basic aircraft, such as the Kiran Mark II, to the most advanced ones like the Mirage 2000.
The IAF depends on the oldest version of the MiG-21 -- the MiG-21 FL -- for training but found the craft unsuitable because it is essentially a fighter-interceptor and does not incorporate any features of a trainer jet. Analysts say that bad training results in fatal errors of judgement at high speeds and these often lead to crashes. Says former air chief S.K. Kaul, "The government's lack of action on the AJT is nothing short of crass disregard for the force's vital needs." Even the present chief, Air Chief Marshal A.Y. Tipnis, at a commanders' conference in June 1999 blamed poor training for the high number of air crashes.
A decision on the AJT though may at last be on hand. A French team visited Delhi last week and an English one is expected over the next two weeks to hammer out a deal. Even when the AJT is acquired indications are that India may go in for only 60 such aircraft. Air forces with comparable force structures, such as the UK and France, have opted for 150 aircraft, including about one squadron in reserve. So the problem of lack of training may persist.
Another major cause for the alarmingly high rate of IAF accidents is the lack of spare parts. In the mid '90s, a committee appointed to look into the air crashes pointed out this problem and pinned part of the blame on the spares made by the public-sector Hindustan Aeronautics Limited. As for the spares from Russia, sources say that though they are now supplied on time, the costs since 1991 have skyrocketed, in some instances by as much as 400 per cent. Given the fact that 70 per cent of Indian fighters are of Russian origin this has a negative impact on procurement of crucial components.
Each of the major reasons for the increasing number of crashes - poor training, ageing fleet, pilot error, defective spare parts - are problems that can be addressed if the IAF and the mod get down to brasstacks quickly. Otherwise, most of the fighters would have to be nicknamed "widow makers".