Indo Pacific,
the words conjures a world where Indian aircraft carriers assert Mahan’s vision
of sea control far from the littoral, even as running silent running deep – an Indian
nuclear submarine suddenly pops up to neutralizing a Chinese armada far from
their home bases and Indian fighter aircraft undertake sorties from bases in the
Indian ocean rim islands - refueled aerially far from the motherland.
As if an
Indian role across the world - from the western command in Mumbai down south to
Diego Garcia and all the way to the Pacific command in Honolulu is suddenly a
reality.
Ever since the
United States renamed its command in Hawaii as the Indo - Pacific and President
Donald Trump unveiled a new National Security Strategy describing India as a
"leading global power" India’s role on the high seas is assumed as
manifest destiny.
Not so fast.
While
India’s increasing role in global affairs and its attempts at military outreach
is a fact – but several factors will likely hold India back.
The biggest
block is money; there just isn’t enough of the stuff dedicated to match the
ambition of a global role. Sending a few thousand soldiers on UN missions is
very different from asserting oneself in the vast Indo - pacific. What India needs is an expeditionary military
force not the continental - largely land based capability that it currently
possesses. Transformation will need billions of dollars. Yet, by spending only 1.65 % of her GDP on
defense in 2018, India is bringing a knife to a gunfight.
Pakistan at
3 % and China 3.5 % far outpace her- and the Chinese GDP is nearly five times
India’s. The kind of navy with the number of nuclear submarines, mine sweepers
and destroyers that India needs for power projection - along with the number of
fighter aircraft and mobility for the army that are required - simply cannot be
sustained at the current budget levels. A recent report from the ministry of
defense said that even acquisitions for which money has been allocated are delayed
on an average by three years and in some crucial ones by a decade. This makes
some acquisitions obsolete even as they enter service.
One
statistic in particular can cut short any indo pacific ambitions, at Rupees 2.5
lakh crore the pension and salary liabilities of India’s defense budget are
more than double of the annual 1 lakh crore spending on defense modernization.
The second
big concern is grand strategy. Does India really want to be an Indo pacific power?
With power will come greater responsibility. So are India’s shoulders broad
enough for that? Just as with money so with blood – grand strategy is a hard
grind and influence in international relations is a messy business. It calls
for taking responsibility – to put it simply it often calls for shedding blood
and taking lives – calmly and consistently. Russia did that in Syria, China
does it in Tibet and around the world, Mao’s own son died fighting in the
Korean war. All great powers do this, this is the very nature of the beast.
India is ill suited culturally for asserting hard power.
Take India’s
approach with Pakistan an example – one reason why Indian efforts at isolating
the Islamic republic fall flat is that no one is convinced that India would not
jump at half and opportunity to break bread with Pakistan. We just do not come across
as serious players much less as seriously nasty. You cannot lobby the world to
isolate Pakistan when you continue to offer the most favored nation to it. Put
another way, the world is waiting to see if India is really serious about
isolating the Islamic republic for only after that will the Indian scope beyond
her neighborhood and in the Indo pacific emerge with some coherence.
India has to
demonstrate it can make hard choices in international relations. While it is
important not to reduce diplomacy to a zero sum game and retain strategic
autonomy - it is equally important to assert when core interests are in
question.
This is
especially so in a multi polar world. India’s old relationship with Russia has
been reduced from strategic to the transactional. In Afghanistan India has spent
$5 billion beefing up a regime that is opening a dialogue with the Taliban.
In short, the
world is increasingly shorting India.
It will need
- as it always does - a dramatic and sustained change of course through blood,
money and application of hard power to bankrupt the short sellers
.
India with
its 2.5 trillion dollar economy has choices a plenty but needs to get her hands
dirty. The world is waiting with the QUAD option of US Japan and Australia -
and beyond, it will not wait for long.
India must
be loved for her soft power and feared for her strength. For otherwise it looks
a little silly speaking in a loud voice but carrying a small stick.
