Royal Ranthambore: Indian whiskies go up the value chain

 

Cheers to a royal heritage

Ninad D Sheth 

The Indian whiskey market is very quickly evolving to include bold new offerings, Casks that were for the masses are now unafraid to take on the world of class when they are opened after a multi million dollar investment and not a few years of aging.

 I bought one such tipple that is getting people talking - the Royal Ranthambhore. This is a Whiskey that presents itself as a refined and complex spirit. You would notice right away a deep amber hue that catches the light beautifully.

On the nose, it exhibits a harmonious blend of especially of caramel and vanilla, and a hint of dried fruits. The initial sip reveals a velvety texture a defining quality of this one. Flavors of toffee that appeal to the Indian pallet have been figured out to a T. Then there is a delicate touch of spice, creating a delightful finish.  

This is one Whiskey which goes well with the aged cheese that you may have stashed away for a wine evening. Be bold and try it with the RR. The earthy and nutty flavors of aged cheese pair exceptionally well with the nuanced character of Royal Ranthambore Whiskey. Whether it's sharp cheddar, a tangy blue or creamy Gouda the last one being the perfect fit.  The whiskey's depth enhances the flavors of the cheese, resulting in a rather delightful combination that is sure to please cheese lovers.  You can also do well with a Grilled mutton Steak. The robust flavors of a meaty perfectly grilled lamb steak a superb match made Royal Ranthambore charred exterior of the steak will compliment the smoothness of the tongue feel, while its richer flavor stands up to the meat's savory notes. An indulgent combination.

 

The whiskey is now creating memories of a royal past by its richly adorned bottle it’s a part of the experience of the royal times gone by. So get your own privy purse and savor the drink princely India. In the end you will love it for Its well-rounded and complex flavor profile.

Xi – Biden interaction reveals America strategically adrift. By Ninad D Sheth

 

 

US President Biden’s video conference with China’s supreme leader Xijinping had atmospherics that reflected a new and rapidly changing shift in world order.

It was very on the ball of Xijinping to call Biden an old friend – it signals trust, but is condescending in diplomacy, all the more given the $1 billion Hunter Biden China benefit background story. It made Biden very uncomfortable - putting the US President on the defensive straight away.

Biden emphasized cooperation in his engagement with China. This was to be expected as conflict is not a part of America's playbook ever since the shameful flight from Afghanistan. The appetite for a fight, the hall mark of empire, has diminished in Washington. Clearly Xi read his “old friend” well.

Xijinping on the other with his power boosted after the recently concluded communist party congress warned Biden that on Taiwan the US president was playing with fire – wow that a googly and as upfront as one can get in a summit. The time when China kept its head low and bided its time is over after this summit of the big two.

There have been other pointers for the world to worry. The most significant is the sapping of confidence in American will. While the US dollar has primacy and the way of war itself is changing with drones and aircraft carriers for example the US can – should it want disrupt Afghanistan significantly if Kabul threatened another attack on US mainland.  Yet, therein is the rub. Instead of a country that led the fight against the evil empire, to paraphrase Ronald Regan, through the cold war today in Asia the US faces the challenge of grand strategy. As the US decides that avoiding an attack on the mainland is its only priority it makes allies nervous and emboldens China and Russia.

The nervousness of the allies is not to be taken lightly. The post world war II order has rested on the American nuclear umbrella.  Neither Japan nor South Korea posses nuclear weapons. Legislators and think tanks in both countries, not to mention voters increasingly question if the US will sacrifice Los Angeles for Tokyo – a leaking umbrella is no good in a nuclear rain.  The consequences of an America in isolation are akin to a nuclear chain reaction allies would not know how much they can trust the US with both Japan and South Korea eventually considering a walk out of the NPT and going nuclear. For India too the US global isolation is a problem, can it consider itself as a true counter weight to China in the American scheme of things with the nagging worry that the carpet will be pushed from under if  push came to shove?

There have been other signs of American weakness in the public domain, Colin Kahl, undersecretary of defense for policy, recently asserted that terror safe heavens in Afghanistan can attack US mainland within a year. That assessment is widely shared and underscores the consequence of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan.

The seeming inability of the US to protect its intellectual property is another glaring example. After all a lot of Huawei as is galling for Silicon Valley - is allegedly Cisco’s intellectual property. Great civilizations slide when they cannot maintain a hold on their genius and Biden has done very little on protecting US intellectual property since taking office.

 

The free world is watching the flaccid US leadership in dismay international institutions such as the UN are way out of date and the global order is threatened by a sense of each country being on their own.

The video conference may not have been a zoom call but the world is zooming in, the disruptions are nearer than they appear on the computer mirror.

 

THE CHINA PROBLEM

Long after the last mourner’s wail is heard from burial grounds and crematoria around the world, caused by the death and destruction from the Corona virus, which originated in Wuhan, the China problem will live on.  Globalization will be challenged and the world will push back against Beijing.

 

Ironically, China could hide the disease for three weeks and “export” it under the same devils bargain that ensured globalization. China can move millions off their farms making its own citizens landless overnight for foreign factories and make people work long hours for two generation for a pittance and no health care. These measures, not allowed in the West were but overlooked for prosperity. This world of wink, wink, nudge, nudge is heading for a shove.

That is the post modern truth of today’s world.

Chinese totalitarian that underpinned global consumerism for so long – is now seen as a mortal threat to the very core of the free world’s way of life.

The three weeks when china could have warned the rest of the world but chose not to could well turn out to be the longest three weeks for globalization ever since Deng Xiaoping opened China up in 1985. 

Globalization was underpinned by a simple brutal premise – the China price. China will decide the critical mass and the quantity to be supplied at a price that you want. It was an offer that could not be refused. No getting hand dirty on how it was made in China. It cost nickels to the dime and for the price, worked just perfect thank you.

Turns out when you add the $4.2 trillion US Corona virus stimulus funds, $3 trillion plus British fund $ 2.2 trillion in the EU and $1 trillion in Japan and counting - that China price is actually a sleight of hand - if not outright robbery.

But decoupling China is not like changing a light bulb.

In 2018, China’s trade in goods was $4.6 trillion or 12.4 percent of global trade. At $300 billion, China’s yearly global trade surplus exceeds the GDP of many countries.  Chinese consumers account for a staggering 46% of all e commerce transactions; Shenzhen a sleepy village of the 80’s has a GDP greater than that of Russia.

 

From financing $4 billion for startups in India to $14 billion already loaned to Pakistan for OBOR onto Africa where it is the largest goods trading partner with $188 billion of trade in 2015, China looks omnipresent. The country is also a leader in the internet economy with games like PubG owned partly by ten cents to Tiktok of byte dance onto we chat and Taobao the latter is bigger than Amazon. In new 5G and hyper sonic missiles and space weapons china is leapfrogging.

Put another way, if the West wants to take China on it has to trade away the grand trade off.

Capitalism does not put a premium on freedom, the global supply chain is just in time and freedom just takes too much of it. Witness for example that the initial trade deal with the US has withstood the Covid storm China is buying $300 billion of agricultural produce in the swing states crucial for president Trump. 

 

The West will have to likely raise tariffs and cut taxes to ensure that companies move away from China. That will raise prices in the OECD and may make it impossible to manufacture without cutting minimum wages and raising inflation. Generous pensions, could be history.

For China such a move by the West, will have massive consequences – it is one thing for OECD to have some inflation quite another for the communist party to have 10 million unemployed every year. More than 70 percent of Chinese production is exported, you cut that - you cut the jugular, China will hemorrhage.

Will the corona virus change things and raise the threat perception of the West enough for it to take this great leap forward?

This is not an overnight job. It will take a cultural revolution from the global consumer willing to take some pain and global governance to show some gumption. It will entail moving manufacturing to other countries. Some, such as Vietnam are totalitarian but cannot match China in scale while others like India are democracies but without Chinese efficiency. 

 

So how will the West respond?

It could choose to hit China were it hurts – fragment the supply chain move to several countries at once and expose China’s greatest weakness – its infrastructure serves the whole world but its domestic consumption while huge still remains small when manufacturing investment to GDP is considered.  While China is the world’s factory it is not its own high street shop. 

 

China has two important allies. Most of the commerce in China is not done by states, its undertaken by giant multinational companies that out straddle the nation state. These companies may not hate china with the same vigor as the country of their origin. Secondly, so deeply intertwined is the Chinese supply chain, that many in the west and India and other third world countries are petty traders of Chinese products. These are in the millions and they do not want change and will protest vocally.  Lastly, it just may be too late, like big US banks after the 2008 crises – China may simply have become too big to fail.

Bangalore Diary

Swallow us alive

I go to Bangalore like u know maybe thrice a year.  It Seems to grow franticlly bigger every time I visit.

It’s odd to see lakes nearby on the Uber map but none visible when travelling - or from the hotel roof tops.

Urbanization has cast a cement spell on Bangalore that’s impossible to break. 

This time, since I was covering the air show, I traveled all over the city for the first three days I was lodging in a place called Manyata tech park about thirty kilometers from the IAF airbase at Yahlankha and next few days next to IIM Bangalore in the middle sorties were made to pubs at Whitefield and church road. So, I traversed the town pretty much. I saw the exasperation and despair of every one - the foreign investor, the “techie” from rohtak, the cab driver - all of them. Everyone looked at the traffic situation like we in Delhi look at pollution with anger giving way to hopelessness.  In many ways it is the reverse of China where infrastructure was build big upfront on a debt mountain for business to follow – here infrastructure has simply not kept pace with the growth and now Bangalore has to mind the gap.

Techie talk 

If I owned an IPL team in Bangalore I would call it Bangalore arbitragers – for this is a city that truly plays on the arbitrage.  It as we all know, crawls with coders. The main advantage is not that India has a smart IT population that will change the world. It’s simply a matter of price arbitrage. An Indian computer engineer with five years experience costs $20,000 a year - while his EXACT equivalent in the US of A costs $100,000. Foreign IT companies have tried several destinations to crack this cost arbitrage they have set up store from Costa Rica to Thailand but the quality and the ability to work that little bit extra without whining , is only found in India - and especially in Bangalore. 

I walked around Manyata Tech Park a newish development that has 9 million square feet of offices of IBM, alcatel, Nvidia; cognizant … you get the drift. The hottest jobs in the next five years are going to be in Data science, in full stack development and Machine learning.  The cost arbitrage is so huge a top US CEO told me – they do not mind spending a whole quarter of wages for retraining fresh Indian grads in computer application skills given our degree factories lack real world training. I also learned from another CEO a trade secret - that H1B will have only marginal impact as a full 40 % of visits by Indian tech firms are to inflate bills!! We can do a lot of the same job sitting right here in Bangalore through conferencing and remote enabling software- the H1B adds client confidence - after all nothing beats a face to face.  It’s kinda you know, reassuring!  BTW the rupee is expected to slide this year – dalal street could yet give 25% rupee returns on some of IT stocks in 2019.

Polite city

For someone from Delhi frankly Bangalore is a shockingly polite city. Even with all that traffic there is rarely an argument. The shopkeepers are amazingly friendly a go out of their way to make you feel happy. I always go to a tiny shop as you turn into Church street that has the best superhero t-shirts from Lokie to Hulkbuster they have it all. Try ordering even at tiny roadside food joints there is a certain politeness which is amazingly for a city of this huge size .

Of food and watering holes

So I went, as I always do over the years, to Peco’s everyone old favorite that has pioneered the pub culture of Bangalore – legend has it that at least two unicorn ideas came out of long drunken evenings here.  I discovered that time takes its toll, but not on the vibes, friendly crowd and excellent coorgi pork stir fry was had and beer was enjoyed over some music. Now Peco’s may not be the in thing anymore for the young crowd but for old timers it’s still the place to be. It is cozy, lived in.

The next day I reached a brewery which I think is doing a lot of good to the drinking scene of Bangalore as it keeps experimenting Windmills in Whitefield, they have to work on their stouts but I think on pale ales they are hitting the right notes. A Dry hopped amber beauty which has a bit more character then typical English ale, I recommend it and @ 300 a pint this is a steal.  The Kali Mirch chicken is a revelation the wood paneled library setting with a very impressive variety of books makes this an excellent choice for a fun evening with some quality beers.

For ales, I think the Arbour brewery on MG road is a must they had a special ale brewed just for the air show – I must confess I relished its smoothness as I said cheers and promised myself to revisit this fast changing metropolis.

For all the Indo – Pacific talk, India faces deep challenges of grand strategy.

Indo Pacific, the words conjures a world where Indian aircraft carriers assert Mahan’s vision of sea control far from the littoral, even as running silent running deep – an Indian nuclear submarine suddenly pops up to neutralizing a Chinese armada far from their home bases and Indian fighter aircraft undertake sorties from bases in the Indian ocean rim islands - refueled aerially far from the motherland.

As if an Indian role across the world - from the western command in Mumbai down south to Diego Garcia and all the way to the Pacific command in Honolulu is suddenly a reality.

Ever since the United States renamed its command in Hawaii as the Indo - Pacific and President Donald Trump unveiled a new National Security Strategy describing India as a "leading global power" India’s role on the high seas is assumed as manifest destiny.

Not so fast.

While India’s increasing role in global affairs and its attempts at military outreach is a fact – but several factors will likely hold India back.

The biggest block is money; there just isn’t enough of the stuff dedicated to match the ambition of a global role. Sending a few thousand soldiers on UN missions is very different from asserting oneself in the vast Indo - pacific.  What India needs is an expeditionary military force not the continental - largely land based capability that it currently possesses. Transformation will need billions of dollars.  Yet, by spending only 1.65 % of her GDP on defense in 2018, India is bringing a knife to a gunfight.

Pakistan at 3 % and China 3.5 % far outpace her- and the Chinese GDP is nearly five times India’s. The kind of navy with the number of nuclear submarines, mine sweepers and destroyers that India needs for power projection - along with the number of fighter aircraft and mobility for the army that are required - simply cannot be sustained at the current budget levels. A recent report from the ministry of defense said that even acquisitions for which money has been allocated are delayed on an average by three years and in some crucial ones by a decade. This makes some acquisitions obsolete even as they enter service.

One statistic in particular can cut short any indo pacific ambitions, at Rupees 2.5 lakh crore the pension and salary liabilities of India’s defense budget are more than double of the annual 1 lakh crore spending on defense modernization.

The second big concern is grand strategy. Does India really want to be an Indo pacific power? With power will come greater responsibility. So are India’s shoulders broad enough for that? Just as with money so with blood – grand strategy is a hard grind and influence in international relations is a messy business. It calls for taking responsibility – to put it simply it often calls for shedding blood and taking lives – calmly and consistently. Russia did that in Syria, China does it in Tibet and around the world, Mao’s own son died fighting in the Korean war. All great powers do this, this is the very nature of the beast. India is ill suited culturally for asserting hard power.

Take India’s approach with Pakistan an example – one reason why Indian efforts at isolating the Islamic republic fall flat is that no one is convinced that India would not jump at half and opportunity to break bread with Pakistan. We just do not come across as serious players much less as seriously nasty. You cannot lobby the world to isolate Pakistan when you continue to offer the most favored nation to it. Put another way, the world is waiting to see if India is really serious about isolating the Islamic republic for only after that will the Indian scope beyond her neighborhood and in the Indo pacific emerge with some coherence.

India has to demonstrate it can make hard choices in international relations. While it is important not to reduce diplomacy to a zero sum game and retain strategic autonomy - it is equally important to assert when core interests are in question. 

This is especially so in a multi polar world. India’s old relationship with Russia has been reduced from strategic to the transactional. In Afghanistan India has spent $5 billion beefing up a regime that is opening a dialogue with the Taliban.

In short, the world is increasingly shorting India.

It will need - as it always does - a dramatic and sustained change of course through blood, money and application of hard power to bankrupt the short sellers

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India with its 2.5 trillion dollar economy has choices a plenty but needs to get her hands dirty. The world is waiting with the QUAD option of US Japan and Australia - and beyond, it will not wait for long. 

India must be loved for her soft power and feared for her strength. For otherwise it looks a little silly speaking in a loud voice but carrying a small stick.