Interview with George soros

'The challenge for democracy is to go beyond the vote' George Soros He has been famously called a 'moron' by former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Muhammed, and was criticised as 'an evil man' by the Thai government. This was in 1997, when the tiger economies of Southeast Asia went into a tailspin and those countries felt that speculators, led by the billionaire George Soros, had pulled out money leading to economic chaos that lasted years. But Soros is more than just a man with lots of money; he also has a mission — to promote democracy — for which he has pledged his own funds. He was in New Delhi last week to release a survey on the state of democracy in South Asia by the Center for the Study of Developing Societies. In a chat with Ninad D Sheth he declined to talk about his investment plans or the economy, preferring to stick to his great concern: the promotion of democracy. You have never been to India before, which is surprising. What is more interesting is that you have never invested here... India has always been of close interest to me. I had tried to invest here way back, as many as 15 years ago. However, at that time there were several restrictions. As for India as a democracy, we at the Open Society Institute watch it very closely, and I am here to learn first-hand about the magic of Indian democracy. Rest of South Asia has an uneven relationship with democracy… Yes. Two countries are of particular interest to me — Pakistan and Burma. Pakistan is obviously not a democracy. But many independent people have told me that there is more media freedom under Musharraf than there was under Nawaz Sharif. I find it perplexing that on the level of press freedom, electoral democracy in Pakistan has not been able to deliver. In Burma, on the other hand, there is a clear void, since elections are not allowed. It is a non-democratic and non-representative regime and I believe that it is critical to push for the democratic alternative in that country. I have a personal initiative in Burma and I spend considerable time and effort in watching the situation in that country closely. The last few years have seen democracy emerge in several countries. How has it evolved in your own lifetime? Well, it has obviously spread much wider now. However, its depth remains a problem. I also think that instead of aggregation of concerns of the voting public, a lot of the time the elected politicians are concerned only about their own good. This is a worrying development, more so since corruption and lack of governance are directly linked with what I see as a self-serving governing elite. The challenge for democracy is in its ability to get more accountability and better governance through more transparent institutions. Don't you think voters see through such elites and vote them out? Electoral democracy alone is very limited. While electoral processes are critical in setting the broader terms of discourse, they have limitations in ensuring good governance. It's important to broaden the democratic base to include checks and balances beyond the mandate of the ballot box, and to revive non-governmental institutions and vitalise alternatives beyond political parties. The challenge for democracy is to go beyond the vote. Open societies need constant vigil to maintain the openness — it cannot be taken for granted. What challenges does financial globalisation pose to democratic control and the nation state? The challenges posed by financial globalisation are not new. What has changed is the speed at which financial globalisation has gone ahead. I believe that the challenge for democracies is to build flexible institutions that can react to the pace of change. It is in that context that foreign policy in the financial sphere should look to regulation, from an international standpoint; this is particularly true for democracies that are also globalised markets. You have watched Russia closely. There are concerns that Moscow is increasingly turning towards totalitarianism… Yes, this is true. Putin has curbed a lot of institutions, including the power of opposition parties and the media. Moreover, he is in a very firm position — the Russian economy will remain in the growth mode for some time to come. Answers for Russian democracy, I believe, have to come from within Russia. Outside criticism only makes Putin stronger, as he can play the nationalist card and prey on old fears. But there is bound to be an impact on Eastern Europe and Russia's so-called 'near abroad'. It is too early to tell. One thing is certain though — Russia will use its newfound leverage, especially in commodities prices, and the Baltic states and Ukraine are obviously more vulnerable. However, other East European democracies are less influenced by Russia. For one thing, most are now in the NATO framework and therefore have institutional democratic support. Are you likely to open an institution in India on the lines of the Soros Foundation? I would like to, but I cannot. There are too many restrictions on foreign foundations in India. We do not feel that we will have the independence that we need to operate here. I am afraid Indian laws regarding foreign foundations are much too restrictive.

indian stock market anchors need transperancy

Media needs to be more transparent
Switch on any business channel on television and you have the same picture. An anchor sits in a plush studio with two “experts” gleefully telling the viewers which stock to buy, and which to dump. By the way of exposure you have a half a second clip which tell you that the said “expert “ holds stock in the very company he is pontificating about. This has clearly irritated the country’s stock exchange watchdog the securities and exchange board of India. Its out going chairman Mr. Damodaran made this much plain in a recent interview to the Indian Express. When a regulator held in wide esteem as a sensible overseer takes notice of the media it raises several questions.
In the United States, especially post Enron, there are specific provisions that channels have to follow including a detailed discourse of number of stocks and likely investment positions in the futures markets before they come on television and speak on a particular stock. None of this alas is in existence in the Indian media.
The lack of such disclosure has the potential to create a herd mentality in bull runs. It can also hurt the retail investor given the fact that some of the large business houses hold a significant percentage as ownerships in business channels. Thus if an industrialist has a major stake in a media house that owned a television channel and comes up with an IPO it can be a case of conflict of interest for him to manipulate a stock.
The real concern is that although SEBI has made two attempts to work out a self-regulating code of conduct for the media there has been no response from the media. This arrogance may cost the media some of its dearly loved freedom. When self-regulation is absent, inevitably governments find ways to impose their will.The media needs to heed this wake up call and line up a code of conduct that makes their manner more transparent. Such a move will help them, their viewers and the retail investors. Not so doing could cost the media its credibility and some of its freedom.

boom town jalandhar

A city going hammer and tongs
Jalandhar, for long the poor cousin of Ludhiana, is fast coming into its own. The city is a case study for globalisation at work. Its growth story is unique in two respects: it’s exports-led and manufacture-driven; and it lies in the Doaba area of Punjab, home to a staggering 6 million non-resident Indians—a population equal to that of New Zealand’s.
A major trigger for growth is a property boom, which appears speculative. Says real estate consultant Arjit Kapooria, “On the Grand Trunk Road that flanks the city, the government-auctioned price for an acre of land three years ago was Rs 50 lakh. Today, in the smae area, it’s a staggering Rs 4 crore.
A large part of this growth is fuelled by the buying spree of NRIs.”
Land authorities estimate that NRIs have ploughed Rs 300 crore into buying property in the doaba in the last five years. Add to that the industrial growth, and the exuberance in the property market appears rational. Reliance and DLF are looking for large plots. Fourteen malls are under construction in the Jalandhar area and Radisson has set up a 5-star hotel in the heart of the city.
The driver for this growth is connectivity between Jalandhar and nearby towns. As one approaches Jalandhar, one can see work along the highways for miles around. The Ambala-Jalandhar road is being six-laned; so’s the one connecting the city with Ludhiana.
Exports are where Jalandhar really shines. With Indian exports growing 27% in 2006, these are good times for the city. It leads India in the exports of hand tools, Sports goods and leather. Says Surjit Jolly of the Sports Goods Manufacturing Association, “Sports goods are a true free-market story.
We get no sops from the governm-ent, yet we export Rs 600-crore worth of goods.
If, like Pakistan, we get non-duty imports for raw material, this industry can become a Rs 5,000-crore business within five years.”
Jalandhar is also a focal point for leather with estimated exports of Rs 300 crore last year. However, like elsewhere, globalisation and competition have also brought pain to the city. It is consolidation time, and smaller units are finding survival difficult. The high duty on machinery that the industry needs is also an impediment to growth.
Since Jalandhar is a manufacture-driven growth story, it has created enormous employment opportunities. With an estimated 3.5 lakh migrant workers from eastern UP, Bihar and Orissa, social tension is also growing. Locals can’t do without the labour and yet there is an undercurrent of resentment. I decide to visit a local liquor shop at the eastern edge of the city. It is a tough and dangerous place. Fights break out without warning over trivial issues.
I am sitting next to Hamid Rahim from Barabanki in UP. He and his friends work at a foreign Sports goods manufacturer’s outlet. The working conditions, they tell me over packs of country liquor, are as bad as before but the pay is better.
Semi-skilled labour gets about Rs 2,000 a month plus overtime. Even then there is shortage of labour. Says Rahim: “The real issue is lack of proper places to stay. If we had hygienic dormitories, we could save so much more money.” Is Jalandhar Inc listening?
On my last day in town, I meet the perfect example of the change that in engulfing this city. In Model Town, the downtown shopping arcade, I walk into a very busy shop swarming with youth. It’s a tattoo shop. I chat up Pammi Ahuja, 23, who is looking for a new kind of globalisation-induced opportunity. Having finished her airline course and English diction course, she has recently been hired by a foreign airline. She is morose though as she can’t have a tattoo (the airline forbids them). Globalisation, however, is leaving a mark on her life perhaps without her even realising it in this bustling city of Punjab notorious for female foeticide.
In Jalandhar, you realise that for India to sustain job growth, industrial production and manufacture hold the key. A recent Cap Gemini report hinted that India might yet become a manufacturing hub of the world to compete with China. For that to happen, a thousand Jalandhars will need to boom.

interview with Steven roach Morgan Stanley

Steven Roach is chief economist and managing director of Morgan Stanley worldwide. He has more than three decades of experience in economic forecasting, economic policy and the global financial markets. His responsibilities include overseeing the entities gamut of financial and economic research by Morgan Stanley, including country indexes and other financial forecasting products. He spoke to Ninad D Sheth on the global economy, its growth and weak spots:

The global economy is on a roll. There is growth everywhere.

Yes. The US, the primary engine of the world economy, had a very robust year, China grew officially at 9 per cent but in my view it was more like a whopping 12 per cent, India notched double digit and even Japan of all places had 4 per cent. Only Europe seems to have forgotten how to grow but still managed 1.4 per cent. There is an upswing. The issue is whether this is sustainable. There are too many fundamental gaps leading me to question the ability for the world’s leading economies to sustain growth.

How serious is the US deficit as a source of global financial instability on a 1 to 10 scale?

The US deficit is a serious, but secondary, issue. I would rate it 6 on 10, however, the dismal US savings rate is the largest single cause of worry for the global economy. This is 9 on the 10-point scale. The shopping addiction of the US household, which fuels a large part of global growth, is unsustainable and needs to be urgently tackled. US savings rate is at a historic low.

Is the Bush administration concerned?

Unfortunately, the administration is moving in the opposite direction. The tax cuts and the fact that there has been no movement on the interest rates combine to make a dangerous blend. Indeed, there is no appetite currently in Washington for a correction. The overriding theme seems to be to continue with the tax cuts and not allow for a rise in the interest rates. The only way the US can grow is to get capital from abroad. Thus, with so much money coming from foreign lands, there comes a point when this financing becomes unsustainable.

BPO has emerged as a major US issue. What is the worst case scenario likely to be?

I sincerely think the worse is behind us in the BPO backlash. The jobless recovery happening in the US is the real cause of this backlash fanned by populism in an election year. I do not think we can blame the layoffs to outsourcing. However, there is no doubt that outsourcing will hurt net new job creation. To stem the flow of outsourcing through government-sponsored incentives would be a very expensive choice.

So is the Bush administration committed to free trade on this issue?

George Bush is committed only to one thing, re-election. If he sees his numbers slipping, there is no preventing an about-turn on the outsourcing issue. The administration is currently in combat mode for re-election. This is not an issue of ideological commitment to them at all. He changed his mind on steel and went protectionist. He can do it on the outsourcing issue as well.

So should India worry about a protectionist phase in the US?

Yes, it should. However, China has much more to worry on this. Already, there are two very significant Bills in Congress with bipartisan support that attack China. China is an obvious target because of the incredibly huge trade surplus that it has with the US. However, should push come to shove, India with the attendant issues of outsourcing could become a victim of politics scoring over economics? The real problems are domestic — in the low savings, the poor education. But it is human nature to blame someone else for one’s own problems and this is exactly what is happening in the US.

How is India placed to leverage the labour arbitrage?

India is well placed, perhaps, in the best position as far as the outsourcing opportunity is concerned. It has a brand equity as well as ground strength in knowledge workers. These are well- educated people with a high motivational level and well-connected globally in cutting edge IT sectors. With a conducive environment, India can use this to immense benefit.

You are an old time China watcher. As the Indian economy takes off, what are the lessons India need to learn from the Chinese miracle?

The Chinese have a very powerful growth model. It is based on a currency pegged to the dollar, complete emphasis on infrastructure for manufacturing and a very business-friendly environment for foreigners. India, even today, lags on the last two counts and need to sort it out for a sustained bull run.

Do you see China devaluing her currency?

No, I don’t. What they will do — and some of this has already begun — is to tighten the credit in the economy and cool it down a few percentage points. A lower growth rate of 9 per cent will help China and I think there are other creative solutions — not devaluation — that the Chinese will opt for.

And the dollar?

I think that it will slide more. The fundamentals point to a much lower value for the dollar.

Is Morgan Stanley bullish on India?
Yes, we are. We believe that India is a real opportunity.