Indian states debt to GDP

State Rank	2009-10	2010-11(RE)	2011-12(BE)
1. West Bengal	44	42	39.9
2. Uttar Pradesh	39.8	38.1	37.6
3. Punjab	34.7	33.4	33.4
4. Rajasthan	35.9	32.6	32.1
5. Madhya Pradesh	31.3	30.8	31.1
6. Jharkand	28	27.3	30.9
7. Kerala	32.8	31.1	30.4
8. Bihar	34	30.2	28.9
9. Goa	32.6	30.2	28
10. Gujarat	28.8	26.9	26
11. Andhra Pradesh	26	24	25.6
12. Orissa	28.2	25.9	24.9
13. Karnataka	24.5	22.6	22.4
14. Tamil Nadu	21.5	20.8	21.6
15. Maharashtra	22.6	21.9	21
16. Haryana	19.5	18.9	19
17. Chattisgarh	14.8	13.2	15

A hidden Jewel in Rajesthan - the Oasis of Keetchen

Phalodi, the Oasis town in Thar

Ninad D Sheth

Phalodi isn't quite on the map. At the edge of the Thar Desert this oasis town is a wonder that's worth a visit.
It has in its havelis some of the best Rajasthan architecture, in its 8th century temples some of the oldest places of worship to survive the Islamic conquest of India, in its vegetarian food a tour de force of culinary excellence.

And since we are in Rajasthan there are plenty of legends as well.
The town, 160 km from Jaisalmer is on the long-standing Arab - Marwar -Sindh trading route.
In the olden times, before the Karachi port opened an alternative quicker route, for over 400 years this was a busy trading outpost. Here tax and trade created wealth that fuelled the Marwari community's fortunes and supplied monies to the house of Jodhpur.
Phalodi is a place of money and mystery. It was here that a massive sand storm is said to have buried the treasures of Humayun who was fleeing from Sher Shah Suri.
Even now coins turn up in the sand stretches near the town that bear the mark of the early Mughal period.
We have taken the long road from Delhi a good ten hour drive. A night halt at the government guest house in Bikaner is important.
The night halt makes the trip less of a rush. The guest house is truly basic - but this being Rajasthan the service is top drawer and the rest - after a 7 hour drive - refreshing.
Reaching Phalodi we choose a remarkable place to stay. A heveli built in 1750 called Lal Niwas. As the name suggests this is in  red sandstone and  that has been painstakingly restored.
The artifacts on the wall, old chandeliers the odd weapon and lather opium boxes all take you well back in time. '
But what is truly extraordinary about the place is that the other half of the haveli is left undecorated with bat droppings, cobwebs and the like. So in one surreal step you go into medieval Rajasthan - an experience which lends a true perspective.

We prepare to tuck in a right royal seven course feast that includes the traditional dal bati choorma and katdhi.

Day two is about getting up fresh and early and a 4X4 ride into the Rajasthan desert. A half hour later we are at the oasis of Khichan. The oasis - like the rest of the topography is a shallow pane with sand dunes of modest height surrounding it.
At first you do not see the birds - only hear them busily feeding. You walk over the curved dune and suddenly over the sand duned horizon rise an estimated 3000 demoiselle cranes. It is a heart stopping sight.
These migratory birds from Europe and Russia are one of the smallest of the crane family.

The birds, with black legs and bills of yellow, green and pink have feathery gray areas on their head that ranges from the crown to the nape. A white kajal-like line from the corner of the eye extends to the back of the head.
This is the magic of the desert - a flock of more then three thousand birds flying in unison is awesome. You forget the long hours that took you to get there.
The next one hour is spend in the company of Japanese and French birdwatchers gazing at the graceful birds they soar over the desert horizon. You reflect that Indian tourists have yet to develop bird watching sensitivities.
We come back strangely overwhelmed at this experience of seeing so much birdlife in so desolate a place.
Though there's much more to do even in that tiny town -- as varied as a great Jain temple and an intriguing antique shop -- Phalodi is the place if bird watching is on your mind and Rajasthan is in your heart.

Obama Big in Japan

Obama in Tokyo Walking the Pivot talk

Ninad D Sheth

The US President, Barrack Obama starts his Asia tour with a visit to Japan, its most important partner in Asia.

This is a visit of great consequence visit.

President Obama and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe dined at the famed Sukiyabashi Jir restaurant, renowned as the shrine of sushi. The menu s  equally delicate some of it raw.

The main course the US security guarantee to Japan, the second is the Goliath trade agreement, the trans - pacific partnership.

There is great nervousness in Tokyo on American commitment to Japan’s security. Japan needs reassurance.

The visit comes in the wake of Japan’s simmering and dangerous dispute over the islands known as Senkaku in Japan and Diaoyu in China. While largely uninhabited they are claimed by both countries.

China has been unusually aggressive in its diplomatic posture and maritime activity concerning these islands. It has based its diplomacy on the assumption that America may not have the stomach for a fight so far away from home.

China is in for a very rude surprise.

Obama’s  interview to Japan’s largest newspaper Yomiuri Shimbun, Indicates that the American president is serious about the assurance. This  is evident in the language he used in describing The Senkaku islands as being administered by Japan and in opposing  any unilateral attempts to undermine Japan’s administration of these islands.

Article 5 of the U.S.-Japan Mutual Security treaty calls for the US to come to Japan’s aid in the event of war. It is a treaty that has held the peace in Asia for 60 odd years. It is also an alliance which has been influential in Japan not opting for nuclear weapons. Significantly, just before the trip Japan agreed to return 300kg of plutonium enough to make fifty atomic bombs and well within the Japanese technical capability to do so.

Clearly the ball is in play. China has been told in very specific terms that the security stakes have suddenly gone up.  If the United states walks the talk it can call China’s bluff. China has few ral options. For all the talk of asymmetric warfare, and a new aircraft carrier, the plain fact is that in

the Japanese littoral, China is at a significant military disadvantage. Let alone the US seventh fleet, even the Japanese navy is a very powerful force. It will only get more fire power and with the expected introduction of new aegis class ships during the Obama visit.

What is more complicating for China is that Obama is walking the pivot talk.  The US seventh fleet is set to base two more theater missile defense system destroyers in Japan.  Suddenly China has a string of pearls around it much like it fancies garlanding India with. From a US marines base in Perth to robust naval engagement with Singapore and Japan added to a new thrust in Taiwan the military massage to China is simple and clear.

This trip by the US President is to match American economic resurgence with its foreign policy promise. I expect the outlines of the trans – pacific partnership to be announced during this visit.  

The new aggressive American stance is on the back of two imperative economic factors. According to the council on foreign relations, a noted US think tank, the housing recovery in price terms is only five percent lower than when the recovery began in late 2009. Similarly, capacity in manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities is up 2 percent from 2008 and gaining momentum. In the energy sector the US is will likely overtake Saudi Arabia and Russia as the world’s top oil producer. Although the cost of producing that oil is far more per barrel then in say Saudi Arabia. Most important of all US is tightening its belt and printing a lot of money without leading to statistically significant increase in inflation and yet propelling growth. When you factor in the final push up that the U.S. government’s deficit will likely fall to $492 billion this year, it is one big economic miracle.

Obama canceled his Japan trip twice. This time he speaks from a position of strength.  This is a trip - if not to contain China surely to caution it. One banks on the famous Chinese pragmatism.

life's lessons from Sachin Tendulkar and Amitabh Bachchan

In popular Indian culture, there are only two heroes: Amitabh Bachchan and Sachin Tendulkar. Their appeal goes beyond borders; they are, in fact, India’s best soft power ambassadors. They also have a surprisingly lot in common.

Both are unconventional. In sports, height is an advantage, but Tendulkar is not tall; in  Hindi movies, being lanky was not accepted, yet Bachchan made it big. Both men are intense, almost possessed, as if they know nothing but that deep-driven desire. Years after they were well past the ‘legend’ status, both could be seen on the sets or at the nets, up early practising their respective arts. For them, every day is a new start to play, and to act.

Focus is the other thing. Both epitomise the Mahabharat hero Arjun. In their skills, they are twins. For that one eye is cross-haired on the inverted fishbowl. Perfection, nothing less, will do.

In Bachchan, you see it in his delivery that lends a certain seamlessness between the script, the act and onto even the man himself. In Tendulkar, you witness this in his classic strokes — be it the punch off the back foot or just a leave outside the offstump, telling the bowler he is wasting his time.

Some of the things that they do quite obviously are gifts given by god. But to make use of those gifts is a hard grind. You can be this real talent but perfection is a lonely pursuit. It needs you to draw deep.  You have to go above and beyond whatever gifts you may have been given. This is impossibly difficult. It’s yogic. There is a reason why we have so many good actors and cricketers and so few — so very few —great ones. 

That reason is sweat — and sweat is what you do not see.

Upbringing, what we conventionally call ‘values’, also matters. Both Bachchan and Tendulkar had academics as parents. You will be surprised by how much this counts. When one’s parents are in the thinking business, one is ‘secure’ in a way that is difficult to explain. It allows you to to imagine that you too can think big — and if it does not happen, you have the choice of doing other things. Campus life offers a sheltered, almost cocooned, existence. It lets you believe that dreams can be fitfully dreamt and things impossible pursued with your skills.

Also, both have had — in fact, Bachchan continues to have — a long inning. That takes persistence. One cannot let go off the hunger to do more, to do better. The passion can all wane and become a routine; one may forget that this is all they wanted to do in their  lives. A deadly lull has finished many a career. Yet, for both Bachchan and Tendulkar, it is a debut shot every time.

It is almost certain that in the two personalities we have the last pair that straddles three generations in terms of popular culture. The formats are changing in cricket, specialisation is in, and it will cut careers. In films, technology is bringing about dramatic change. So, in that sense, both these people are precious to a legion of people.

The health and physical aspect is also imperative. At the top, fitness becomes an issue even for super heroes.  Bachchan has had his share of bad health — his life once famously hung in the balance. An accident during the shoot of Coolie, left him clinically dead for two minutes.

As for Tendulkar, he hardly has a body part that has not been hurt during his marathon innings. He has endured pain in the back and the ankle, a tennis elbow which required him to go under the knife, and later, a bad shoulder. There was also a broken knee, a groin injury and innumerable instances of pulled hamstrings. Almost anything that can be hurt has been hurt. Yet, both have displayed an iron will and ensured that the show was on, regardless of everything.

Another striking similarity between the two legends is that both are apolitical. It is true that Bachchan did enter the political arena, but he withdrew as soon as he got hot under the collar. Both men have also shied away from taking a stand on controversial issues. They believe that they are not here to change the world.

This is sad, especially for the country. It reflects on our our democracy and its limitations. It also leaves the public discourse empty and robs it of its vibrancy. Neither men will throw away that hard-won award for a cause. It’s just not them — it’s not us either.

Both superstars have handled their fame with dignity and a grace that is uncommon. Both are constantly in the public eye. Normal life, as we know it, is not an option for them. You cannot suddenly go for a dinner or walk in the rain — there will be fans swarming. Still, both have done an excellent job of being in the lime-light.

As Tendulkar’s innings come to an end and Bachchan enjoys the last phase of his career, let us be happy that, like our grandparents, we too will have the opportunity to tell tales about Big B and Jersey#10 to our grandchildren. These are tales to hang on to in this ephemeral world.  

They loiter, they spy, they spot, some rain hell on their targets. While expensive, they do not have a human cost attached. The United States is the top dog in this game but India is slowly getting the drone act together. Drone wars are now a part of India’s military capability - and their role will only grow. While actual numbers are classified, India may have an upward of 200 drones already. The Indian armed forces will induct “suicide drones” that can be turned into missiles this year. India has also shown interest in hand held drones for its army. The Home ministry also operates drones for counter insurgency. Killer drones are also on the Menu. India is testing drones that can carry smart bombs. Here is why Drones are important for India (a Picture of heron1drone vs. a Mig 21) Drones in India’s inventory can keep aloft for up to 40 hours at a high of over 30,000 feet, silent and small thus tougher to detect for the enemy. For many tasks such as surveillance it is just silly to risk a pilot’s life Almost one third of India’s fighter aircrafts are old and cannot do optimum sorties, the drone fleet is much younger. Drones are evolving, for new roles every day. India is working ondrones that can fire precision weapons up to a range of 100 kilometers. Drones will help Indian armed forces to overcome the pilot shortage India has critical pilot shortage drones do not need pilots. Training a pilot is costly. It costs over $2 million to train just one pilot. (Pic of trainer aircraft the Pilatus) India’s geography and topography makes the Drones an obvious choice India has a coastline of 7517 kilometers when you add 200 sq kilometers of the exclusive economic zone this becomes a vast spatial area to protect. 70 per cent of the high Himalayas fall in India much of it facing Pakistan and China. The average high of the Indian Himalayas is 6000 meters. The great Thar Desert on the Indian side covers some 80,000 square kilometers to look over. This geography makes human presence over most of it impossible The drones come marching in – here is what the Indian fleet looks like The searcher series (pic of searcher II) India started its drone deployment in 1996 with the Searcher I from Israel India operates newer versions of this drone, the searcher MK II This bird spies at 200 kilometers an hour and can loiter for up to 16 hours above 20,000 feet That is Ideal over the LOC and the deserts and the high seas India has an estimated 75 of these birds The problem is they need to be mounted on the controversial Tetra trucks which are hard to take up the mountain terrain So actual deployment is less then optimum Heron 1 This is the mainstay of the Indian armed forces in Drone warfare This drone can go up to 3200 feet at 200 kilometers an hour and over 300 kilometers from launch It has multi sensor capability can track targets as well as provide visual engagement It is valuable in tracking cross border intrusions as well as providing real time theater awareness for troops on the ground Here comes a drone that is also a missile This year the Indian armed forces are inducting the Israeli made HAROP It has cost India upward of $1 billion to acquire HAROP is special because it has a war head and can fly on a one way ticket It can become a missile on command It can loiter for hours a 1000 kilometer away after launch It was showcased at the aero Asian at Bangalore in 2009 It has cutting edge electro optical sensors This means it can “see” any pre launch activity from behind enemy lines The Rustom It is an Indian made drone named after the Late Rustom Damania who conceptualized it It can travel at 225 kilometers an hour and can climb to up to 30,000 feet India is also planning Rustom II its first test flight is in 2014 DRDO plans to make the Rustom II into an armed drone It is however at least five years away from entering service in meaningful numbers. The Aura This is the most ambitious Indian stealth Drone project It looks like a flying wing and has stealth features which make the dronedifficult to detect on enemy radars It is designed to defend itself as well as attack targets with smart munitions and missiles India may use its home made kaveri engine for this drone That engine has been twenty years in development but is not good enough for a fighter jet While an ambitious idea this drone is at least a decade away from induction in the forces.

Monday, November 18, 2013

Why India does not make arms

Union Minister for Defense AK Antony has spoken of reorienting defense acquisition priorities from foreign vendors to domestic capacity-building as an urgent priority. This is a noble sentiment but unlikely to happen. Deep structural impediments prevent India from developing its own weapon systems in the near to medium term. There is at the outset the issue of strategic direction. The Defense Research and Development Organization is a behemoth with over 50 research labs producing everything from fruit juice — they gave us the Leh berry to Intercontinental ballistic missiles. The delivery of the latter has been promised at a future date; meanwhile you can sip the juice. India imports everything from bullets to aircraft carriers. According to Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, a think-tank that monitors international defense trade, India’s annual arms imports doubled from $1.04 billion in 2005 to $2.1 billion in 2009. It doubled again between 2009 and 2012. India imported an estimated four billion dollars worth of weaponry in 2012, making it the world’s largest importer of defense equipment. While big-ticket items, such as a nuclear submarine leased from Russia or fighter aircraft Rafale under negotiation from France, get all the airtime, the shocking truth is that India is a big importer of mundane items like bullets and even socks and underwear for high altitude regions. What accounts for such utter dependence 60 years after independence? The answer is straightforward. The system for military production and the procedure for procurement have been untouched by reforms. Public-sector firms such as the DRDO and the Hindustan Aeronautics Limited are in a time warp, with an unfettered and unchecked mandate for making weaponry in India. The results have been a disaster. Often, technology transfers are not absorbed as these firms lack the necessary capability to do so. Time over-runs are routine and cost over-runs are a scandal. To take just one example, India’s efforts to develop an anti-tank missile called Nag started with a budget of Rs 380 crore, which ballooned to Rs 1,700 crore. Yet the missile did not pass muster in field trials, with three of the four missiles fired missing their targets in extreme heat conditions. The same pattern repeats from the Kaveri engine which has a cost overrun of 800 per cent and will never fly a jet fighter to the Tejas fighter aircraft (with American engines) that has had more deadlines missed then sorties flown. There is almost no oversight save the Comptroller and Auditor-General’s reports concerning India’s defense production. The conflict of interest is so stark that the chief of DRDO is traditionally the Chief Scientific Adviser to the Prime Minister. Thus, he is in charge of both production and oversight. With that being the case, it is no wonder that defense production in India gets very little by the way of a serious review of its flaws. The failure of Tejas is the most glaring example. Successive DRDO heads backed the aircraft it was supposed to replace — the ageing MIG 21s. But it has yet to be certified. Meanwhile, India has lost precious lives of pilots to technical faults of aging fighters. This blasé attitude of the country’s apex defense production organisation has cost India both blood and money. The reason the Union Defense Minister sounds hollow on developing Indian capacity in armament manufacturing is a report gathering dust since 2007 in the innards of the magnificent citadel of South Block. Named the Rama Rao Committee report, it called for greater participation of the private sector in defense and urged the Government to involve clients — the Armed Forces much more closely while undertaking research and development of weapons. Why this report has not been implemented, is a question only Mr Antony can answer. The recent move to allow 49 per cent foreign direct investment has proved to be a tentative step. The Government has developed cold feet and decided to peruse this policy only on a case-by-case basis. What is more, it has added the role of foreign investment promotion board along with the Defense Ministry. This will only add red tape and discourage investments. It is no wonder that total foreign direct investment in defense in India since 2000 has been only Rs 25 crore. Private Indian firms have acquired critical mass and shown interest in defense manufacturing. Firms such as L&T, involved in India’s nuclear submarine project, the Tatas, Reliance and others are interested in the defense sector. What they lack is proprietary technology. One way of channeling that to India is to allow 74 per cent FDI in the sector. That will reassure global firms to trust India with its technology. Doing so will bring down Indian costs and develop Indian capability. This should be undertaken at the earliest. It’s time the country’s defense sector truly opened up.

PM's China visit let China set the agenda , failed.

The visit by the Prime Minister to China has been a disappointment. India went out of its way not to raise its core concerns and signed yet other confidence-building measure in the Border Defence Cooperation Agreement. If one goes by the media hype, the BDCA will seem like a magic wand that will make the border suddenly much easier to manage. It is nothing of the sort. Both sides have already put in place three such agreements. These were signed in 1993, 1996, and 2003. The latest agreement will not be able to prevent face-offs on the Line of Actual Control, as mistakenly reported by a large section of the media. Those face-offs happen because China has become more aggressive as part of a well thought out policy to demonstrate to India its ability to patrol this vast border and stake ownership on occasions. There are three reasons why the LAC will remain volatile even after this agreement. The first is cartographic and is central to the India-China border issue. Along a large section of the Line of Actual Control, the actual ground position of troops is not defined by the two sides. China has always delayed such definition despite endless rounds of talks since 2005. The second reason why the border will continue to see disputes and transgression is in its topography. At some places the border is situated on ridges and salients that are above 18,000 feet. In such topography, without a mutual understanding of where the border stands, it is impossible to stop transgression. In a stunning reversal for India, the agreement forbids tailing of soldiers in case of cross-border transgressions. By agreeing to this, India has given China a free-run on the LAC. How can a commander on the ground determine where his Chinese counterparts are moving, planning to camp, or staying within India-held areas, without tailing them? This is even more relevant given the fact that on the LAC, the Chinese have a significant advantage of being on higher ground. There is much unhappiness in the Indian Army about this provision. It also shows a dangerous disconnect the decision-makers in the Prime Minister’s Office, the Union Ministry of Defence and their disregard for military input. No military in the world will commit to a situation where its forces cannot do aggressive tailing and border patrols. Without these, it is next to impossible to be warned about any intrusion, let alone undertake counter-measures. The memorandum of understanding on water- sharing also has little substance. It is merely a promise by China to share data with India in the flooding season. The fact that China is building one of the world’s largest dams on the Brahmaputra is left unexplained. In a startling omission, the word ‘dam’ is not mentioned in the entire document. This leaves India high and dry, as there are no means for New Delhi to determine if these dams are run-of-the-river projects or they divert river flow to reservoirs and other water bodies. The visit also failed in a strategic sense. It has allowed China to set the agenda. India was unable or unwilling to even raise issues of core concern. For example, Chinese activities in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir were not taken up. Neither did India flag its concerns regarding China’s brazen disregard for the norms of the Nuclear Suppliers Group which underline its decision to supply two new nuclear reactors to Pakistan. Nor did India take up the issue of trade deficit, which is pegged at nearly $40 billion with China. India has expressed interest for China to invest in the infrastructure sector. This is just talk. There are too many security concerns especially given the proximity of many Chinese firms to Beijing for any meaningful investment to materialise in the Indian infrastructure sector. While some may take satisfaction in the fact that a freer visa regime was held back by India, the Chinese don’t seem to care much. They believe that the Indian side is just delaying the visa regime and does not have the holding power to fold it up. The Chinese may just be right. Indications are that the Union Ministry of External Affairs is already having second thoughts and will sign on the dotted line once things cool down. This visit thus sets a template. It's not pleasant reading that template. China has conveyed to India that this bilateral relationship is set on its own terms. Therefore, what China decides will be discussed and what it finds inconvenient will not be mentioned. India’s foreign office has been exposed as timid and unable to secure Indian interest in summit meetings. When dealing with China, clarity of action is paramount. China knows that it already holds Aksai Chin. It believes that if push comes to shove, it can destabilise India by arming Pakistan. It is also confident that its military superiority across the border from Arunachal Pradesh is a formidable hedge. It has about 3,00,000 soldiers and nuclear missiles as well as 11 landing grounds in Tibet's Chengdu region. The People’s Liberation Army believes a short war can force India’s hand, if negotiating tactics do not work. Hard power is needed to correct this Chinese perception. Time for that is running out. India will do better to look beyond incremental confidence-building measures and concentrate on boosting its military capabilities in case Chinese intentions change over time.