Obama Big in Japan

Obama in Tokyo Walking the Pivot talk

Ninad D Sheth

The US President, Barrack Obama starts his Asia tour with a visit to Japan, its most important partner in Asia.

This is a visit of great consequence visit.

President Obama and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe dined at the famed Sukiyabashi Jir restaurant, renowned as the shrine of sushi. The menu s  equally delicate some of it raw.

The main course the US security guarantee to Japan, the second is the Goliath trade agreement, the trans - pacific partnership.

There is great nervousness in Tokyo on American commitment to Japan’s security. Japan needs reassurance.

The visit comes in the wake of Japan’s simmering and dangerous dispute over the islands known as Senkaku in Japan and Diaoyu in China. While largely uninhabited they are claimed by both countries.

China has been unusually aggressive in its diplomatic posture and maritime activity concerning these islands. It has based its diplomacy on the assumption that America may not have the stomach for a fight so far away from home.

China is in for a very rude surprise.

Obama’s  interview to Japan’s largest newspaper Yomiuri Shimbun, Indicates that the American president is serious about the assurance. This  is evident in the language he used in describing The Senkaku islands as being administered by Japan and in opposing  any unilateral attempts to undermine Japan’s administration of these islands.

Article 5 of the U.S.-Japan Mutual Security treaty calls for the US to come to Japan’s aid in the event of war. It is a treaty that has held the peace in Asia for 60 odd years. It is also an alliance which has been influential in Japan not opting for nuclear weapons. Significantly, just before the trip Japan agreed to return 300kg of plutonium enough to make fifty atomic bombs and well within the Japanese technical capability to do so.

Clearly the ball is in play. China has been told in very specific terms that the security stakes have suddenly gone up.  If the United states walks the talk it can call China’s bluff. China has few ral options. For all the talk of asymmetric warfare, and a new aircraft carrier, the plain fact is that in

the Japanese littoral, China is at a significant military disadvantage. Let alone the US seventh fleet, even the Japanese navy is a very powerful force. It will only get more fire power and with the expected introduction of new aegis class ships during the Obama visit.

What is more complicating for China is that Obama is walking the pivot talk.  The US seventh fleet is set to base two more theater missile defense system destroyers in Japan.  Suddenly China has a string of pearls around it much like it fancies garlanding India with. From a US marines base in Perth to robust naval engagement with Singapore and Japan added to a new thrust in Taiwan the military massage to China is simple and clear.

This trip by the US President is to match American economic resurgence with its foreign policy promise. I expect the outlines of the trans – pacific partnership to be announced during this visit.  

The new aggressive American stance is on the back of two imperative economic factors. According to the council on foreign relations, a noted US think tank, the housing recovery in price terms is only five percent lower than when the recovery began in late 2009. Similarly, capacity in manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities is up 2 percent from 2008 and gaining momentum. In the energy sector the US is will likely overtake Saudi Arabia and Russia as the world’s top oil producer. Although the cost of producing that oil is far more per barrel then in say Saudi Arabia. Most important of all US is tightening its belt and printing a lot of money without leading to statistically significant increase in inflation and yet propelling growth. When you factor in the final push up that the U.S. government’s deficit will likely fall to $492 billion this year, it is one big economic miracle.

Obama canceled his Japan trip twice. This time he speaks from a position of strength.  This is a trip - if not to contain China surely to caution it. One banks on the famous Chinese pragmatism.