indian air force in trouble.

Depending on what media you access, the price of the Rafale, the new “bird” of the Indian Air Force (IAF), ranges between $10 billion and $18 billion. Clearly, while the IAF will fly the Rafale, the media is flying kites! However, for the IAF there is plenty of turbulence to deal with. The deal has been delayed, even though it was trumpeted as the fairest in India defence procurement history, thanks to earlier objections raised by Rajya Sabha MP, Mr M.V. Mysura Reddy. It took the Ministry of Defence (MoD) and the IAF well over five years to initiate final negotiations. These negotiations will take a further year to close if all goes off well with the inquiry the Defence Minister has ordered. In this one-year period, the cost could rise by at least 25 per cent, combining inflation and the depreciating rupee. Thus, a seemingly fair procedure has come at a very high cost. Meanwhile, Rafale has developed new radar and added some avionics and airframe capabilities. WHAT ABOUT TEJAS? Maintaining its fighter squadron strengths to the minimum mandated level is the biggest challenge for the IAF. Even with the addition of the proposed SU 30s and the Rafaels, the strength of the fleet is unlikely to reach the desirable 42 squadrons that it plans by 2020. The IAF will retire more aircraft (such as the Mig 21s and the Jaguars) over this period than it will induct. Thus, the air force is likely to be short of optimum strength in fighter planes well into the next decade. The lack of squadrons is directly related to war preparedness and results in a domino which includes lesser sorties flown in peacetime, constrained war wastage reserves and a bigger part of the fleet in overhaul and maintenance. Lost in the cacophony surrounding the acquisition of the Rafale is the fate of India’s own light combat aircraft — the Tejas. The aircraft has been under-funded from its inception in 1983 — the actual funding for the programme came almost a decade later in 1992. The Indian defence acquisition strategy is at variance here from that of China, which has focused on indigenous aircraft development since the 60s. The LCA Tejas has, as yet, not got simple clearances, such as an all-weather-capability and lightning strike clearance. The strategic role of this aircraft is in question, although it has world-class avionic capabilities. It is unlikely to be inducted in effective numbers till 2018 or even later. Thus, the IAF has a missing middle — a single-engine new aircraft that can act as the bulwark — even as it gets very expensive twin-engine-heavy Sukhois and Rafales at the top end. INFRASTRUCTURE DEFICIT The IAF does not have a basic trainer aircraft on which to hone the skills of rookie pilots. The IAF is probably the only air force in the world that puts pilots directly on a jet rather then a turboprop basic trainer. Even the jet trainer is of a model from the 1970s. The Hawk aircraft have come a decade too late and the interim has caused loss of precious lives and compromised training. The MoD has belatedly approved the acquisition of the Swiss Pilatus trainer. Even if its procurement procedure goes forward, it will be five years before a fleet can be put in place. This is because acquiring the aircraft is only the beginning. Instructors have to be trained on the new aircraft and the equipment protocols put in place. Till such time, the safety record of the IAF is likely to suffer all the more. The IAF lost 46 fighters in the last six years. Alarmingly, the losses include not just aging MiG 21s, even ultra-modern SU 30s were lost. The IAF does not even have hangar facilities for majority of the SU 30s. This came to light when exposure to foreign elements was believed to be a cause in the last major crash of an SU 30. If basic infrastructure on the ground such as a hangar is unavailable in requisite numbers one can only imagine the state of more advance airworthiness procedures. Some years ago the IAF damaged half a dozen frontline Mirage 2000s in Gwalior when a hangar complex housing them collapsed apparently due to sub-standard construction. No lessons have been learned. The list of woes is endless — from Russian air-to-air missiles, that as a CAG report pointed, under-perform both in range and in accuracy during operations, to the fact that by the IAF’ s own admission there are major gaps in radar coverage across India. It is time that these matters were discussed in Parliament and the public domain, even as the Ministry of Defence mandarins pretend it is business as usual and bask in undeserved glory

the china threat to india

Deng Xiaoping was given to one liners. He famously said that "you should cross the river by feeling for the pebbles" To take the analogy further, the river, or rather the gulf, between a rising belligerent China and an insecure India is a fast flowing torrent and the pebbles are sharp. The relationship between the two countries as they rise from a colonial past to a future as emerging giants is the biggest story of the 21st century.

It is a story of new global competition and old deep seated bilateral suspicions, of economic growth yet diplomatic distance. Of dangerous unsettled borders and a potent arms race. It is a tale of international alliances diplomacy trying to off set regional intrigues.

In other words, a great game with Chinese characteristics is playing out. It is apparent in China's encirclement through military aid and diplomatic support to in India's littoral. It is visible in remote and inhospitable Oil fields and bauxites mines in Africa where both compete. It is even there in the Silicon Valley as India cedes ground to a newly computer literate China. It is present in India's own high street where China floods cheap toys and electronic goods on the back of a mighty manufacturing machine and an artificially cheap currency.

India has a legitimate fear of this rising giant but from its economic policy and diplomatic maneuvering very little it seems by the way of strategy. A rising China, on the other hand, just does not see India in the same league. It has tried to undercut India every where. Says Bharat Karnad security expert at the center for Policy research a Delhi think tank, "India is suffering from strategic myopia. China is a nation which recognizes only the language of power. After the nuclear blasts of Pokhran II we had a window of opportunity to come level with China. However out timidity has come n our way. India must asses the complexity and scope of Chinese power they compete with us on all levels and this has to be recognized."

The latest example of that rivalry was the NSG waiver where China tried till the very end to scupper Indian entry and the fact that this came as a surprise to Indians underlines how little India knows about China. Says a diplomat, who was closely related to the negotiations in Vienna, "We fell yet again for the verbal trap. The Chinese assurances to our leaders counted for nothing on the table."

However this has been the pattern ever since the 1962 war. China believes that if India can be isolated globally it will leave the field free from the Asian super power play.

This new great game has four parameters - economic, military, diplomatic and bilateral relations particularly the vexed border question. There is also need to look at India's space for maneuver. To articulate and define what options India has and how can they be calibrated.

1. Here comes the hot stepper - The Chinese economic Threat

The great leap ahead of India that China has now taken is a relatively recent phenomenon. As recently as the 1980's, both countries were at par with extremely low per capita incomes and little integration with the global economy. Control on capital, on investment and trade characterized both countries economic profiles according two World Bank statistics.

However beginning from the mid 1980's dramatic change unfolded in China. It has changed the world. The economic rise of China is the phenomena with perhaps no equal in world history. China by any reckoning is the original 800 pound gorilla. China is the world's third largest economy with a gross domestic product of US$3.4 trillion in exchange rate terms. This is nearly four times India's economy which is just under $ 1 trillion billion. The reason why you see all those grand cities, the great roads, the train to Tibet and other obvious signs of China emerging greatness is the fact that an unusually large percentage - a full 40 percent of its gross GDP is used as investment.

Foreign direct investment in China in the year 2007 was a staggering $ 699billion. China holds the world largest cache of foreign reserves at $1.4 trillion India's is about one fifth at $295 billion. Chinese exports to the world are the greatest example of its robust global engagement. To put China's exports in perspective it is interesting to know that they are larger then India's GDP and stood in 2007 at $1.2 trillion.

Many optimists believe that the growth of trade between China and India will mitigate the differences between the two Asian giants While it is true that trade has indeed grown from just $2 billion in 2000 to over $ 25 billion in 2007, an annual growth rate of about 45 % it has not been all positive for India.

A closer examination of numbers provides a grimmer picture. India's terms of trade with China are alarmingly classic neo colonial. India's major exports include iron ore, minerals, and cotton and other commodities. On the other India's imports include finished goods, electronic machinery, electric goods, Light engineering and appliances. Says Ajay Sahai, the director general of the federation of Indian exporter's organization, "The devil is in the details. The Sino India trade is skewed in China's favor. In the first nine months of 2008 we had a trade deficit with China to the order of $9 billion. What are most of our exports are raw materials such as iron ore and cotton while almost all of our exports are finished goods. Without value add this trade deficit and its quality can only worsen. Commodities exports may be a short term gain but it can turn out to be long terms dependence on China."

The other reason why India Inc finds it difficult to deal with China is the opaque nature of the Chinese subsidies regime and the fact that China deliberately keeps its currency undervalued. Comments Chennai based Rafeeque Ahmed MD of the 580 crore leather exports house Farida "China is a threat because their legendry productivity has an opaque origin. The Chinese currency is still undervalued; the labor laws in India are restrictive, where as in China, there is very little restriction on hire and fire. We also do not have access to cheap capital where as state owned and quasi state owned enterprises in China get loan write off as a matter of course. India's competitiveness is definitely hamstrung by China. "

In the economic sphere there are two other dimensions India and China compete for the same set of energy resources across the world. You are a race on to secure oil gas and mineral assets to feed the blistering growth in the two courtiers inevitably China beats India at most bids.

No where is this more in play then Africa. China does $ 40 billion of trade with the continent most of that is in buying raw Materials and fossil fuels. In Sudan, India and China have a rare partnership in the greater Nile exploration firm an oil venture where China has 40 % stake and an Indian firm ONGC ands 25 %. However china has 4000 troops and support infrastructure on the ground and used its diplomatic clout in defeating worldwide pretest against the Drafur crisis, India did nothing of the sort.

So what should India do when faced with the might of the Chinese economy worldwide? Says Barry Bosworth, of Brookings Institute, a Washington think tank and an expert on Sino Indian economic relations, "India lacks the ready availability of domestic and foreign capital that is available in China. It moves very slowly to strengthen the infrastructure, and lags behind in creating opportunities for low-skilled labor. Both services and those parts of manufacturing where India does well tend to rely on high-skilled labor inputs. India needs expand the financial resources to improve the infrastructure and reduce the public sector borrowing that limits the funds available for private investment. The development of industrial demand for low-skilled labor is vital to spreading the benefits of growth more broadly throughout society. In the longer term, there is a need to fix a dysfunctional public education system."

The other great competition where India fears the rise of China is its core competence –Information technology exports. While currently China exports just about $1 billion of the stuff, this is changing. And India is taking note. A 20078 white paper on the Chinese IT challenge by NASSCOM a premier India IT lobby SAYS "IT in China is witnessing growth: Leading Chinese firms have reported above average growth rates of 40-50 per cent over the past few years. Venture capital investors have also announced significant Investments demonstrating their conviction in the China ITBPO Story. Chinese firms are beginning to receive a steady stream of business Enquiries – from western customers."

Says a Bangalore based IT firm CEO, with an exposure to the Chinese IT training market, "China overtook the US in August 2008 as the largest net surfing nation. China also has put a man in space all on its own. It does not take rocket science to understand the complex high end IT input that Endeavour took."

Clearly The Chinese are closer then they appear in India's rare view mirror

2. The Sino Indian border question - The line of no control

As flashpoints go the Sino Indian border is potentially the most dangerous in the world. If there is one dispute between the two countries that could turn volatile any time it is the border question. India and China have held several rounds of high level border talks. It has been a futile and frustrating process.

The root problem of the border issue is in the year 1962 when India got a hiding from the Chinese PLA. The humiliating defeat has left India scared. So much so that the government report on the war - which truly broke the back of Nehru's foolish post colonial fool hardy Sino – Indian bohemian, is still a state secret. Titled the Henderson – Brooks report all government including the BJP kept it Classified. It is believed that Jaswant Singh was almost persuaded to make it public but developed cold feet at the last minute.

The Chinese and Indians positions on the border dispute have an amazing simplicity. The only problem is that they are totally at odds. India claims 10,000 super kilometers in the Northern sector the region of Aksai Chin.

China calls claim to the entire Arunachal Pradesh and in the western sector and some nooks in the middle sector facing Uttarakhand. For China Arunachal Pradesh is "Southern Tibet", a term increasingly in use in Chinese foreign policy think tanks.

The Chinese position is premised in history. It refuses to recognize the McMahan line which was drawn up by the colonial British power. China's stance is that as a colonial subject it would not accept the McMahan line. So much so, that in the Eastern sector it does not even authenticate actual ground positions of the respective armies. There have been more than 30 incursions in Arunachal Pradesh over the last one year alone. Yet the Chinese can claim that since there is no border there are no incursions.

India had hoped that by recognizing Tibet as an "autonomous" part of China during AB Vajpayee's 1985 visit there would be a thaw in ties. If any thing the Chinese position has only hardened. Says a source in the external affairs ministry " China clearly things it is in a position of advantage. Its economic growth and military modernization as well as the issue with Taiwan call for buying time on the India border question. This is exactly what it is doing."

The problem for India is that China in 1962 took over the entire Arunachal Pradesh and then withdrew. It made its claim and backed off. With time, Chinese military strength will only increase – and India fears a repeated. Says CPR's Bharat Karnad , "India is in a humiliating position vis a vis the border issue. It suffers strategic myopia and more we postponed the border issue for the future more we loose ground. Time is on China's side."

To that end India has stared a massive modernization of Arunachal Pradesh. Says a member of the planning commission on the condition of anonymity "Make no mistake this is a mini marshal plan. A project to make Arunachal modern."

As in other facets of the great rivalry, China is not far behind in August 2008 the People's Republic launched two funds. One was a much talked about $ 2 billion sovereign wealth fund that took positions in US jewels like Citibank - the other was a $ 3 billion fund for Tibet. This is on top of the railway line that connects Lahsa. The fund is to support 180 projects to "modernize Tibet".

As thing stand India can no longer delay a solution to the border questions. Analysts believe that the best India can offer s a trade off between aksai chin and Arunachal Pradesh, Except China already has de fecto control in Aksai Chin and have already reached Arunachal once through display of power in 1962 when it was no where near the power it is today. The border question for India is the ultimate diplomatic log jam.

3. The military imbalance

The real asymmetry in the Sino India relationship comes out of the military imbalance between the two countries. In 2007 China boosted its defense budget by nearly 20 percent; it amounts to $45 billion and is double India's spending. What is more it is only two percent of the Chinese GDP and thus leaves room for further increase.

From India's perspective three aspects of the Chinese military modernization are of particular concern. The first is the deployment and capacity of the latest Chinese nuclear missiles, the second is the modernization of the PLA's rapid action capabilities and the massive modernization of the PLA Navy.

The Chinese have a capability leap Vis a vis India in terms of nuclear missiles. China recently became only the third country in the world to knock down a satellite in space from the ground. Its arsenal has a recent addition the dong feng 31 an ICBM with a range of 8000 kilometers. The DF 31 is a solid fueled three stage missile that can hit targets in the United States. For India an even greater concern is the DF 21 based in Delingha near Tibet that can strike almost all over India given its 2500 kilometer range. China has similar missiles on Hainin Island in the Indian Ocean where its missile base is coming up.

India by contrast has stumbled in its missile programme while it successfully tested Agni III a missile with a range of 3500 kilometers that can strike targets in Tibet the missile is far from a deployment stage. What is more Indian missile carry weapon loads in kilotons when compared to the Chinese missile which have at least one megaton on each ICBM platform Indian missile are mere firecrackers.

China is rapidly building all component of rapid action special forces especially facing India in Tibet. These according to intelligence estimates are based under the 13^th army of the PLA in the chongdu region. The forces include mechanized tank brigades, rapid airlift capabilities as well as paratrooper. They are boosted by the completion of the Tibet railroad and augmented by the 52^nd brigade in nearby Linzi. Says a General VP Mallik the ex chief of Army staff "the Chinese have rapid special forces capacity that has been significantly beefed up and when taken with the infrastructure modernization of Tibet posses a clear immediate challenge for defense planners."

Finally India faces the Chinese Naval threat. The new Jin class nuclear missile for the first time gives the PLA navy deterrent petrol capabilities. These are nuclear armed with undersea launch JL 2 Missile and can should the boat be in the Indian littoral hit any target in India. The Chinese have also introduced a fleet of new Russian destroyers and is beefing up aircraft carrier capability by testing on two mothballed Russian ships till its own design come about. In other words the Indian strategy of blue water navy will within this decade run into a similar strategy by China.

When take with the unsolved border and the Chinese running rings around India in South Asia by providing weapons and nuclear technology to Pakistan and military capabilities to Bangladesh Myanmar and Nepal the modernization of the Chinese military is a real and present danger that's little mention either in the Indian strategic establishment or its media. This could turn out to b a dangerous blind spot should things turn sour diplomatically.

Handling the dragon – own India should respond to China

1) Talk peace but prepare for war.

India must build more muscle. The western sector is vulnerable. The country needs to be prepared for a strategy of limited war with an ability to stand its ground. Some of this is already happening. India is raising two new mountain division. It is upgrading infrastructure in both Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh. It has reportedly based Frontline SU 30 fighters (two squadrons) in Tezpur and is placing another one in Kashmir. The IAF will son place an order for 126 new generation fighter jets planes

The Indian Navy will acquire long range spy aircraft from the US as well as a nuclear powered submarine from Russia over the next three years.

2) Beef up nuclear forces

Deterrence does not work without capability. India has very little by the way of a credible nuclear deterrent against China. Our Missiles as well as Fighter planes are vulnerable t a Chinese first strike. What are more outs is a declared no first use of nuclear weapons posture. Thus we are assuming at least in posture nuclear strike survivability. Without submarine based nuclear missiles and a range of 500 kilometers for out land based missiles such as Agni China is unlikely to be deterred.

3) Build an international fund of maritime democracies

India must take the diplomatic lead and create an alliance of democratic maritime powers. The systemic challenge of China is democracy. A totalitarian regime much face from pressure from the US and India with partners like Thailand Australia and Japan through institutional mechanism s in world fora including the UN

3) Keep Tibet open

India foolishly gave in a declared that Tibet is an"autonomous" part of China when Vajpayee visited China in 2005. However there is a premise – Tibetan autonomy. No autonomy no Tibet. India has never compromised on the line that China has no historic claim on Tibet it has only recognized that as things stand Tibet is an autonomous part of China. India should keep Tibet open and a beginning can be made by not rounding up random Tibet protestors at the drop of a hat. One should bear in mind that there is energy proof to establish Chinese support for Naxals in India. And that score this needs to be settled in the long run. China is waiting for the death of the Dalai Lama India should make clear that the Daliam lama has declared that his reincarnation will not be born in Chinese occupied Tibet and as far as India is concerned the new Dalai Lama will be chosen here.

4) Learn from China

There is a lot to learn from China. Country that in 20 years has risen to prominence on an unbelievable scale. Learning can come from their manufacturing model. There emphasis on crating infrastructure first and inviting industry later. India can inculcate Their ability to execute grand projects in time. India has a lot to gain from understanding their disciplined confusion work ethic.

5) Build on the US partnership but cautiously do not annoy China

The next big development in world affairs could be the momentum of the US India deal. This grand strategy however needs to be played out cautiously. Just as China has quietly build her diplomatic clout India needs to build on the India- US partnership. However at all points it should be made clear that China is not the bilateral reason of this relationship

6) Expose the soft power of china within India the Indian left

China has a unique advantage over India. The Indian left parties have always supported China over their own motherland. This is a pattern since 1962. Politically Indian parties and people must constantly be on the vigil about this very potent fifth column within India.

7

The $10 billion dogfight

airbase at Yalahanka is punctured by a deafening roar, as the FA 18 super hornet, performs a stunning rolling loop. The fighter jet is on the Indian air force's shopping list. And it is not just another list going. In these times of recession, $10 billion spells a massive business opportunity. That is the cost of acquiring 126 multi role combat aircraft that India needs for upgrading the air force to the next level. The whole world is lining up to sell, aircraft firms turning up in full strength at the bi- annual air event in Bangalore which kicked of the marketing process. The Indian air force is looking for solutions to a crisis of quality and quantity in its force preparedness. Where as the force needs a minimum contingent of 40 squadrons, currently the force is able to field only 33 squadrons.Says Air vice marshal(rtd) Kapil Kak, additional director of center for air power studies a new Delhi based think tank " This is the biggest ever IAF contract. The winner will need to have three essential attributes. It will have to be a true multi role fighting capability, that includes air to air and air to ground superiority. It will need a powerful AESA radar that can simultaneously track 400 targets and engage at least fifty. Thirdly any air craft will need to have technological modular upgradeability which will allow the IAF to develop it over the years technically. There are many reasons for this depletion in airpower. The first is age of the existing IAF fleet. The IAF has not introduced any new fighter planes over the last decade with the exception of 40 top of the line SU 30 MKI fighter jets from Russia. In the same time, it has had to retire the Mig - 23 fighter bomber as well as the MIg 25 supersonic fighter reconnaissance aircraft. The other major culprit has been air crashes. The IAF has lost more then 200 fighter jets over the last decade. These include all types of aircraft but the largest number has been the ageing fleet of its mainstay – the Mig 21.To get over the resultant shortage of fighter planes India has floated the request for Information, official speak for an tender, to acquire 126 fighter jets that will be the striking arm of the IAF for decades to come.THE F A 18 Super hornet – the front runnerThe super hornet is a formidable aircraft. It is a fifth generation fighter planes and a front runner for the contract. The fighter is designed for air dominance and has Day/night strikes capabilities in all weather. Says Dr Vivek Lall, VP and country head Boeing Integrated Defense Systems, "The Super Hornet will provide the Indian Air Force with a tactically superior and combat proven multi-role combat capability. This is further enhanced by its renowned reliability, ease of maintenance, and exceptional operational availability - all of which contribute to its low Life Cycle Cost." However two factors could hold back this fighter from winning the IAF contract. The first is the issue of defense off sets. The United States has traditionally not shared technology with client states where as India has a stated policy that requires fifty percent of all defense building work to be done within India. Another hurdle is that the US rules will make it difficult for India to have this fighter plane tweaked to make it capable of delivering nuclear weapons. The US has stringent end user agreements for their aircraft and India may not be open to intrusive inspection of their air craft once the fighter joins the force. The proven choice F - 16 super viperAmong those who fly the f 16 is a legend. Across the world in war time sorties it has a 72-0 kill ratio. That is, it has shot down 72 fighters but has never itself been shot down in combat. Its remarkable measurability and proven superiority in wars such as the US attack on Iraq and the Israeli attack on the osirak nuclear reactor have made it the best fighter plane of its generation. Although without question a superb machine there is problem. The Pakistan air force has older version the fighting falcon and that would mean that they would be in a far better position to asses what the technical specifications and operational performance of this fighter plane would be,. This is something that may make it difficult for the super viper. However aviations experts say that the F 16 being offered to India is a block 60 variant and complete in a different advanced category then the one that the Pakistan Air force flies. The Dark Horse - MIg 35The Mig 35 is a dramatic improvement on the Mig 29 which the IAF has flown for many decades. At the Bangalore air show the unofficial consensus among those who watched was that the plane style a long march among rivals when it came to aerial acrobatics. The Mig 35 is a multi role fighter. Although heavier then the competition it has some unique abilities. Says Mikhail T Globenko, regional director for marketing Russian aircraft corporation, " The IAF has a requirement for am modern multi role fighter that can deliver an air superiority platform and the MiG 35 is the ideal choice and it can also be a compatible platform given that the Mig 29 is already ins service with the IAF." The MiG 35 has a powerful Zhuk active electronically scanning array (AESA) radar and can fire a greet range of missiles and bombs. However the Indian relationship with Russian weapons delivery has been rocky with terms of trade changing mid way and thus the trust factor of the delivery schedule and pricing as has happened from with the Indian purchase of the air craft carrier admiral Ghroshkov where the Russians have reportedly hiked prices three fold from the contracted one billion dollars to nearly three billion. The competitor - Euro fighter typhoonThe Euro fighter has an edge in this competition since it is the most modern of the fighter planes on offer and has great strengths in air to air and air to ground roles. The EADS Company has worked with India before as well and is likely to be more flexible with off sets and end user agreements then the Americans. This is likely to be an aircraft that will be the real competitor for this tender. The aircraft has sold over 300 planes to several countries including 72 on order from the Royal Saudi Arabian air force. The challenger RafaleIs a exciting new fighter from Dassault aviation which already supplies the IAF with the Mirage 2000 and the Jaguar fighters. The Rafale stands out in its abilities at air superiority role as well as its advanced avionics and abilities to launch multi role missions. The air force will also be looking keenly at the fact that the firm has a record of working with India on off sets. The air craft is also known to have a very low Radar signature that makes detecting it tough - and can be a critical advantage in combat. The outside chance - SAAB GripenThis Swedish beauty is the last in the race but it too has the modern attributes of a multi role fighter aircraft and is a very new aircraft. The bird is well known for speed and maneuverability and can reach the speed of up to Mach 1.2 without afterburners. It also has a powerful radars and advanced avionics suits. So as the world places its bets and the fighter's role may the best bird win the chance to fly the IAF blues.

The $10 Billion dog fight

Pakistan and Islam

The Islamic republic of Pakistan, to paraphrase Baron Clausewitz, is fogging the war on terror. Like a
geopolitical Jekyll and Hyde, a great game seems to be on. The brave US soldier, in the shadow of the great Himalayan mountain passes, guns drawn, sees in Pakistan at once friend and foe. The international community is like that nervous soldier with a finger perpetually on the trigger.

Inside Pakistan, too, the same scene repeats itself. There is no let-up in suicide terror bombings even after an elected government took power. The support for Sharia law and an Islamic state has far greater acceptance in Islamabad then is generally believed. In this respect, Pakistan has more in common with Algeria than Turkey.

All this would matter for little to the outside world, but for one inconvenient fact. Pakistan is the only Islamic state with nuclear weapons. Armageddon is near should those weapons fall in the wrong hands. And a lot of wrong hands hide in those caves on the Afghan border. Thus, even though an economic basket case, humiliatingly dependent on Saudi handouts and American largesse, Pakistan is a problem.

The trouble in Pakistan is neither structural nor political. It has a far deeper root. It is a dilemma inherent in the nature of Pakistan's state. The country was premised as a homeland for the believers. Islam is in its DNA. The founder of this republic, Mohammed Ali Jinnah, was of the opinion that only an Islamic republic can ensure Muslim rights and their way of life. He rejected the secular idea that formed the founding notion of India.

At its founding, the state had to negate both the older civilisation of India and her democratic polity, and only the Islamic way would do. The struggle underway now is between those who demand the Islamic way and those who try to uphold the idea of Pakistan but cannot offer a non-Islamic alternative statehood.

Thus, an Islamic republic that came into being through a surrogate political process is demanding real parents. In the process it has opened the old dilemma of Islam and democracy. In theory, this problem is of course stark and obvious. Unlike republics such as India, where sovereignty is enshrined in the individual, the Islamic way derives it from Allah. The one person, one vote idea has no resonance. The will of Allah should override universal franchise and personal choice.

This premise of a nation of Islam survived for a large part through American support. The US chose to bypass democratic institutions in favour of the Pakistan army. Most generals that ruled the country have studied at American military schools. The current low-profile chief of the Pakistan army, General Parvez Ashraf Kiyani, has done three courses in the US. This includes the elite course at the staff command at Fort Leavenworth.

This American support and Pakistan's role in the Afghan jihad is well documented. It fostered through the dictator, General Zia ul-Haq, in the 1980s, a near realisation of Pakistan's Islamic founding ethic. Those chickens are now truly coming home to roost.

The secular Turkish model that was sought to be replicated in Islamabad has failed completely. The secular impulse in Pakistan is nowhere near Turkey, where literally hundreds of thousands pour onto the streets in defence of secularism enshrined in the Turkish constitution.

The world faces a challenge. A radical fringe in Pakistan with a great deal of mass support is demanding its own tryst with destiny - an Islamic republic with a social and judicial system based on the Sharia. Pakistan's rulers have flirted with Islamic forces in the past. But now that these forces threaten to spin out of control and engulf Pakistan, the country's rulers are at their wit's ends.

There lies the problem. How Pakistan deals with its dilemma will be of great importance not only to them but also to the rest of the world.

T 90 india's tank troubles

India’s top tank T 90 is not battle-readyNinad D Sheth Thursday, July 20, 2006 22:34 ISTThe Russian-made T 90 is having trouble with its Indian-made ammunition, affecting the force’s preparedness.NEW DELHI: The premium tank of the Indian Army, the T 90, has serious troubles with its ammunition. The problems came to light last quarter but are yet to be sorted out. According to sources in the Army, while the matter has been taken up with the ordnance factory board, the indigenous ammunition already with the Army is lying unused.Instead, the Armored Corps has shown a preference for Russian ammunition. Among the possibilities is a move to import additional ammunition from Russia till the gaps in the current supply are sorted out. The T 90 uses a 125 mm smooth bore gun and the Indian made ammunition has problems in its packaging and the rate of fire that can be safely carried out. The unreliability of the Indian made shell is so serious that the army did not use it in critical numbers in the last two war games that were carried out in Punjab and Rajasthan. The T 90 is the front line tank of the Indian armored corps and India has 125 of these tanks. A further order for 400 tanks is pending with the Russians. In defense parlance, the tank force of the armored divisions is considered the core of the army’s offensive capability. The fact that there are problems with ammunition, points to a lapse in operational readiness of the Indian army. Sources say that this can compromise the new “cold start doctrine” of the Army. This envisages offensive operations at very short notice. Senior army sources say that for any cold start option, a reliable and strong chain of ammunition supplies is a prerequisite. The problem is all the more serious given the fact that as a weapon fighting system, the T 90 is comparable to the best in the world including the M1a1 Abrams tanks of the US. It is also the Main battle tank of the Russian army. However, without the right ammunition, the tank is of little use. Says General (Rtd) VP Malik, “The T 90 was introduced during my tenure. It is a first class weapons system. However, if there are flaws with the locally produced shells, it is a serious problem. When dealing with ammunition there has to be a very strict level of quality control and the problems once identified must be speedily sorted out.”Till such time that Indian factories come up with a shell that the army can trust or the bureaucracy gives speedy permission for further imports of Russian ammunition, the battle preparedness of the elite armored corps will continue to suffer.

T 90 india's tank troubles

India’s top tank T 90 is not battle-readyNinad D Sheth Thursday, July 20, 2006 22:34 ISTThe Russian-made T 90 is having trouble with its Indian-made ammunition, affecting the force’s preparedness.NEW DELHI: The premium tank of the Indian Army, the T 90, has serious troubles with its ammunition. The problems came to light last quarter but are yet to be sorted out. According to sources in the Army, while the matter has been taken up with the ordnance factory board, the indigenous ammunition already with the Army is lying unused.Instead, the Armored Corps has shown a preference for Russian ammunition. Among the possibilities is a move to import additional ammunition from Russia till the gaps in the current supply are sorted out. The T 90 uses a 125 mm smooth bore gun and the Indian made ammunition has problems in its packaging and the rate of fire that can be safely carried out. The unreliability of the Indian made shell is so serious that the army did not use it in critical numbers in the last two war games that were carried out in Punjab and Rajasthan. The T 90 is the front line tank of the Indian armored corps and India has 125 of these tanks. A further order for 400 tanks is pending with the Russians. In defense parlance, the tank force of the armored divisions is considered the core of the army’s offensive capability. The fact that there are problems with ammunition, points to a lapse in operational readiness of the Indian army. Sources say that this can compromise the new “cold start doctrine” of the Army. This envisages offensive operations at very short notice. Senior army sources say that for any cold start option, a reliable and strong chain of ammunition supplies is a prerequisite. The problem is all the more serious given the fact that as a weapon fighting system, the T 90 is comparable to the best in the world including the M1a1 Abrams tanks of the US. It is also the Main battle tank of the Russian army. However, without the right ammunition, the tank is of little use. Says General (Rtd) VP Malik, “The T 90 was introduced during my tenure. It is a first class weapons system. However, if there are flaws with the locally produced shells, it is a serious problem. When dealing with ammunition there has to be a very strict level of quality control and the problems once identified must be speedily sorted out.”Till such time that Indian factories come up with a shell that the army can trust or the bureaucracy gives speedy permission for further imports of Russian ammunition, the battle preparedness of the elite armored corps will continue to suffer.

pak china relations

If Kashmir did not exist, say old time Indian diplomats, Pakistan would have invented it. The ring of truth in this edge is evident every time a Pakistan leader travels to a far away land and speaks at a public forum.
General Musharraff in Beijing was no different. Speaking at a policy institute in that city, the General stressed that while confidence building measures on Kashmir were all very well but the real need was to find “solutions”. He went on to equated Kashmir with Palestine in his grand geo political reflections on the state of the world.
One of the reasons why Kashmir was weighing on the General’s mind is that the China visit is not turning out too well for the him. By the standards of a summit meeting between China and Pakistan - there was painful little to show. Musharraff had a very short meeting with his Chinese counterpart Hu Jintao lasting barely half an hour. Barring a handful of Memorandums of Understanding and a soft loan of $300 million for earthquake relief and the checklist is bereft of any big gains. The general reiterated that Pakistan could be a part of the energy corridor between Oil rich west Asia and China through the Gawder port and including the Karakoram highway. However there was no real deal on this offer from the Chinese side.
One reason could be the fact that bilateral trade between Pakistan and China is worth a partly $ 4.25 billion. This is not even chicken feed in the context of china’s overall trade of $1.1 trillion. India, with $13 billion and a trade surplus with China in 2004 -2005, has three times the quantum of trade. The missing economic link in this relationship could cost Pakistan dear in the years to come
The General was hoping for much more from this visit. After all, as chief patron of Pakistan’s nuclear Program, China has been of great help in the past. It is currently building a 300 MW nuclear reactor in Pakistan. There was an expectation in Islamabad of a package of nuclear energy concessions that could match what India is trying to negotiate with the United States. The day Musharraff arrived in Beijing, the Pakistan armed forces even tested a surface-to-surface missile to press home that point.
The apparent lack of success from this visit will add to the General’s problems. He is already beleaguered at home with sectarian issues and would have liked a foreign policy success to deflect attention from those. As things stand, China while continuing to be a solid alley, has offered little by the way of fresh concessions and initiatives.

soft power india

India's soft power
An economic growth rate of nearly eight per cent, a robust military infrastructure and the nuclear weapon capability have come together to define India’s search for security and status in the emerging world order. However, little attention is paid to a completely different set of sources that can be leveraged by India to consolidate its place in the global scheme of things. This influence becomes visible, from the capability to nurture and leverage, as, in the words of Harvard political scientist Joseph Nye, "soft power". Soft power has many sources. It is derived from the openness and attractiveness of the cultural aspects of a country that hold an abiding appeal to the international community. It encompasses the allure of its political system, the spiritual foundations on which the country has based its founding ideas and the robustness of its popular culture. On all three counts, India is almost uniquely placed. Our ability to manage such plurality and mind boggling differences within a widespread and deep rooted democratic polity is of interest to the world. This appeal is enhanced by the fact that India is in a tough neighborhood. India has on its periphery, a non-democratic, nuclear-armed Islamic republic in Pakistan, and a totalitarian regime in China that has a particularly nasty human rights record — not to mention a rabid Bangladesh and a despotic Nepal.
Democracy is the master weapon in India’s soft culture arsenal. This is not just a vague notion of goodness but a very real tool in international affairs and of interest to like-minded powerful democracies like the USA and Japan. To nurture this power, India has already taken a step by participating in the UN Democracy Fund with a large role for itself. This should help the world in finding alternatives to despotism and look at strengthening democratic institutions from around the world. The second consideration of soft power, is in the spiritual ideas that inform a nation’s history. India can, and indeed does, lead the world in this. From interest in Japan and China in Buddhism, to India’s historic role as a soft power in places as far as Indonesia—the country is well placed to leverage the spiritual advantage. With Germany, we have historic roots of language and culture, while with the UK there is the colonial connection—and with America, it’s democracy. The consumer dimension of this spiritual power should not be underestimated. Every time a future leader of the outside world comes to India as a backpacker, or a star like Madonna takes up yoga, this soft power permeates their inner space of a foreign constituency. Such bonding is all the more powerful given its voluntary nature.
The third leg of the soft power triad is the power of our popular culture. The fact that Indian movies are now screened in places as diverse as Afghanistan, Egypt and Leicester Square is proof of India’s appeal to the world. Indian movies are shown in scores of countries and have an estimated market of US$2 billion. The fact that Pakistan refuses to allow Indian movies, is proof of the fear that closed societies have of soft power. India must leverage this advantage with the systematic aim of deepening and enlarging this constituency in Pakistan. These are the opportunities, but what is the reality? On the world scene India has failed to really put soft power into practice. The vibrancy of such assets as Indian food in Britain or yoga in the USA has developed largely by default and by the initiatives of the private sector rather than by a concerted diplomatic effort. Institutions such as the ICCR have understood the need to go beyond our ancient traditions and move into the present day and age of popular culture, but they need to do more. India has the enormous advantage of a wide spread—and increasingly affluent—diaspora. With the exception of China, the country has the world’s largest non-resident community. The role of this group of 20 million people in spreading India and what it stands for, cannot be underestimated. With overseas people of Indian origin, the country has an embedded advantage.
In places like Mauritius their political presence is significant. In the United States and in Europe, Indians are affluent and slowly moving into the political arena. In the Arab world, the Indian diaspora is the only plurality on offer. The triad of soft power thus gets a leg up through this incredibly powerful overseas community. As India makes its play in the global empire of ideas, it is discovering that it has a very good hand. When played in synch with the country’s emerging economic might and military capability, soft power could be an ace in our pack. It is both a multi billion dollar marketing opportunity, and in the context of countries like Pakistan, is a diplomatic tool of increasing utility which will pay huge dividends in the future.